Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments： Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk
Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk
Commentary event: The company announced the 2018 annual report, which reported a real revenue of 771.99 trillion, an increase of 26.43%; net profit attributable to mother 352.4 billion, an increase of 30.00%; deduct non-profit 355.8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30.71%; net operating cash flow was 413.8.5 billion, an increase of 86.82%; EPS is 28.02, with the same increase of 30.00%; Blacks are now 14.539 yuan, 51 cash dividends.88%.Report the overall gross profit margin 91.14%, net interest rate is 51.37%, increase by 1 each year.34 points, 1.55 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of liquor is 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.In the fourth quarter alone, revenue was 222.3 billion, an increase of 34.12%; net profit attributable to mother 104.70 trillion, an increase of 47.56%; gross profit margin during the period was 91.19%, net interest rate 52.62%. First, the performance in 2018 exceeded expectations; in the fourth quarter alone, the volume and price of Maotai liquor rose, but the ton price exceeded the expected long-term total revenue of US $ 77.2 billion and net profit of US $ 35.2 billion, exceeding the previous stage expectations of more than 2.2 billion and 1.2 billion yuan, respectively.The early performance indicators (revenue + 15%) were over-fulfilled and again exceeded expectations.In terms of breakdown, alcohol sales, hotels, net interest and commission income were 735 respectively.6.4 billion.7.4 billion, 34.24 ppm, an increase of 26 each year.47%, 50.60%, 26.37%.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 654.8.7 billion, an increase of 24.99%; series wine income is 80.77 trillion, an increase of 39.88%.Volume and price breakdown, Moutai sales of 32,464 tons (the same increase of 7.48%), the ton price is 201.720,000 yuan (same increase of 16.29%); sales of 29,774 tons of wine (slightly down 0.43%), the price per ton is 27.130,000 yuan (the same increase of 40.49%).Contribution of price to income and profit increments. Generally speaking, the sales volume of Moutai wine exceeded expectations, and the price exceeded expectations; the sales volume of series wines met expectations, and the ton price exceeded expectations.Moutai wine sales plan for 2018 2.8 initial, actual sales 3.25 Initially, more than 4,500 tons, more than 2,000 tons more than the market expected of 3.In the ten years of 2018, Pfeiffer raised the price by 18.32%, but the average ton price of Moutai has only increased by 16.29%, allegedly the price or sales ratio of non-standard products exceeded expectations.In our judgment, the sales rate of non-standard products with a higher ton price increased from about 27% in 2017 to more than 30% in 2018. The subsequent expectations are mainly prices. The increase in the price of non-standard products in the future and the expansion of the sales ratio meanThere is space.The increase in the ton price of the series of wine is 10 pct higher than expected to reach 270,000. In addition to the direct price increase of the product, the unexpected place is the introduction of the zodiac concept and the structural upgrade.The series of wines are expected to usher in better development, the structure of the series of wines will continue to be upgraded, and the ton price is expected to rise again. Revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 222.3 billion, net profit 104.7 billion, single quarter revenue of more than 20 billion, and profits of more than 10 billion are the first time in history.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 192.22 trillion, the same increase of 37.40%; series wine income 21.4.4 billion, an increase of 22.11%.The volume and price of Moutai liquor have all risen, with an estimated 17% increase in measurement and a 17% increase in price.5%.Although there are expectations ahead of the Spring Festival in 2019, the volume of Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter is still higher than expected.Considering the volume of non-standard products such as boutique Moutai and Zodiac, the market expects a higher price for Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter of the year, but the volume of Pufei and the price increase of non-standard products exceed expectations, which collectively led to the ton price in the fourth quarter.It was also significantly lower than expected. Second, various profit indicators have continued to improve, and it is expected that there will be room for growth in 2019. The overall gross profit margin in 2018 is 91.14%, an increase of 1 per year.34 points; gross profit margin of liquor 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of Maotai Liquor was 93.74%, an increase of 0 a year.92pct, slightly lower than expected; gross margin of the series 71.05%, an increase of 8 a year.30pct became a new highlight.After the Pfeiffer ex-factory price was raised to 969 yuan, the market expects a higher gross profit margin for Moutai, but it may be because the non-standard ex-factory price increase has not been achieved in one step, and the gross profit margin is slightly lower than expected.The gross profit margin in 2019 is expected to increase further with non-standard further price increases, product structure upgrades, channel adjustments and ton prices. In terms of expenses, the overall selling expenses for 2018 were 25.72 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.7.3 billion, sales expense ratio decreased by 1.85 points to 3.33%.The management expense ratio (including R & D) increased slightly, surpassing 0.20pct to 6.90%.Financial expenses, because most of the company’s funds are collected under the centralized management of the company’s holding subsidiary Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd., operating efficiency and income have improved significantly.The three expense ratios are generally improving, and the increase in net profit margin is higher than the gross profit margin.Due to the increase in the marketing efforts of the series of wines in 2017, some expenses were replenished and the sales expenses were reduced. Looking at the combination of 2017 and 2018, the average annual compound growth in sales expenses was slowly declining.It is expected that the sales expense ratio will still maintain a steady downward trend. The management expense ratio will also help maintain stability and financial costs will continue to improve. The company’s various profit indicators continue to improve, and there is still room for further improvement in 2019 and in the longer term.The growth of 2019 performance is supported by the improvement of the average price, profit elasticity coefficient, gross profit margin and net profit margin. Third, the revenue target is likely to be achieved, and product structure upgrades and channel adjustments will improve performance. The company announced that its operating target for 2019 is to increase its total operating income by 14%.Combined with the group’s sprint target of 100 billion yuan, the company merged “faster than faster”, “jump up and pick peaches” and other tone settings, we judge the probability of achieving the revenue target is very high. According to the sales volume announced in the 2018 annual report, we estimate that the sales volume of Moutai top wine in 2019 may reach 3.45 baseline, an increase of 2,000 tons on the basis of 2018.However, if the technology is not perfect and the production and sales rate of the base wine remains unchanged, please ship in accordance with the top grid in 2019, and the sales volume in 2020 may shift by more than 8%.Due to the need for stable performance, we initially judge that the amount of Maotai liquor in 2019 will remain at the level of 2018 and will not increase. In 2018, due to the heavy volume of Profil, Profil’s share in the product structure is still high.With the limited production capacity and the need to accelerate the layout of various price bands, the proportion of Pufei will definitely fall in the future.In 2019, we look forward to seeing a rapid improvement in product structure.At the same time, there is still room for non-standard products to raise prices.According to the price forecast of 969 yuan by Pfeiffer, the ton price of non-standard products can be increased by at least 20% on the basis of 2017.The 2018 report shows that it is currently only increasing by less than 15%, and there is room for further improvement in 2019. In 2018, the number of Moutai liquor dealers decreased by 437, corresponding to the amount of confiscated plans. In the future, it will be mainly invested in direct sales and direct sales channels.If the total distribution contract is maintained in 2019, about 1.7In the initial period, if there is no increase or decrease, the amount of direct marketing and direct sales channels can theoretically reach 1.55 nominal, almost half.In terms of ex-factory ton prices, the average ton price of direct sales and direct sales is obviously higher than the ton price of distribution contracts, especially for direct e-commerce. In theory, the ex-factory price can be very close to the terminal guide price of 1499.By expanding the proportion of direct sales and direct sales, reducing and recycling channel revenue and profits, it is likely to be the most important support for performance improvement in 2019.We estimate through forecasting that the channel revenue adjustments that can be made in 2019 may be close to 10%. As a result, the revenue target has been reduced, channel adjustments contributed nearly 10%, structural upgrades contributed 3% -4%, and non-standard price increases contributed 1.About 5%, coupled with the increase in the income of series wines, and the continuous growth of periods, fees, commissions and other income, it is not difficult to achieve a total operating income increase of 14%. Fourth, advance receipts increased month-on-month, dealers made positive payments, and reported quarterly advance receipts to strive for a record high advance receipts of 135 at the end of 2018.7.7 billion, an increase of 24 from the end of the third quarter.09 ppm, resumes the trend of seasonal increase.At present, the dealers have started to pay for the goods in June, and some personalized products are paying for this.According to feedback from grassroots research, the first quarter of this year’s shipments will be better than the first quarter of 2018. According to the first quarter, the second quarter will account for about 33% of dealers’ plans and 22% for forecasting.The highest Moutai liquor value is more than 25%, which is expected to increase by billions on the basis of the 2018 annual report, which does not rule out the possibility of setting a new record high. According to the company’s plan and sales during the Spring Festival, we judge that the amount of the Spring Festival may be less than 7,500 tons, but the progress is much better than the 2018 Spring Festival, and the sales ratio of non-standard products such as zodiac wine is relatively high.Although the sales progress of the direct sales and direct sales channels slightly exceeded expectations, in general, the first quarter report has a good performance in terms of sales volume, product structure, and channel adjustment, and the first quarter report status will not be bad. V. Performance Judgment: The logic of performance growth in 2019 has changed slightly, and profits are more optimistic. Regarding the revenue target conversion we did before the announcement of the 2018 annual report, the logic of revenue and profit growth in 2019 has changed slightly.In 2018, the sales volume of Moutai was higher than expected, and the ton price was lower than expected. Therefore, under the circumstance that the performance base was raised, the revenue would continue to grow by more than 14%. The product structure upgrade and channel adjustment must be accelerated. Both measures eventually reflectedFor the average ton price.According to our latest breakdown, the contribution of prices to revenue and profit growth has increased significantly.The sales volume does not increase, and the expense rate and interest rate fall. After that, the profit elasticity will increase and the net interest rate will increase.Therefore, based on our judgment that the 14% revenue growth probability is realized, we also think that the profit in 2019 can be seen more optimistic, and it may exceed market expectations again. VI. Profit forecast In 2018, the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance, the performance will exceed expectations, and the base will be raised.The main goal of achieving revenue goals in 2019 is sustainable product structure upgrade and channel adjustment.At the same time, non-standard products may have further price increases.To sum up, the increase in income mainly 南宁桑拿 comes from the increase in ton price, and the elasticity coefficient of profit to price. 2019 is a crucial year for Maotai Group to sprint 100 billion yuan, and the proportion of listed companies’ contribution to group revenue and profit is very high.Therefore, achieving the stated goal of 14% revenue growth is an important task for listed companies.At present, the company leaders have sufficient confidence in achieving the revenue target. From the perspective of target segmentation, we also believe that it is not difficult to achieve the target.We believe that the market’s judgment is that we believe that the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance. As a result of the heavy tonnage price in 2019, the elasticity of profit will be somewhat greater, and net profit may be more optimistic. Taking into account the company’s business plan and new growth logic, we slightly adjusted our profit forecast and forecasted that the company’s revenue growth rate for 2019-2021 will be 15%, 13%, and 14%, and the net profit growth rate will be 27% and 16%, respectively., 16%, corresponding to an EPS of 35.52, 41.32, 47.94 yuan. We don’t consider Pfeiffer’s plan to continue to raise prices. We predict that the company’s revenue will increase by 13% and profit will increase by 16% in 2020.If Pfeiffer raises its price next year, it will definitely continue to increase its growth rate next year. 7. Future estimates and pricing take into account that foreign countries have seized the pricing power of Moutai, will not easily reduce their holdings, and may continue to buy, and that Moutai will still maintain a certain growth rate in the future, and the amount of alcohol produced will be from the current 3.2In the early stage, it increased to 4 in 5 years.97 samples, and 5 in the long run.6 Initial; ex-factory price will still have room for improvement, and net profit margin will still increase accordingly.Therefore, it is reasonable for Moutai to maintain an estimated hub of about 25 times in the next few years. In 2019, the PE of Moutai was 23 times. Taking into account the rationality and continuity of pricing, we price the company according to the estimated level of 2020, which is 25 times PE. The target price is 1030 yuan, corresponding to 29 times the PE in 2019. Considering that the expected highs of Moutai in 2017 and 2018 were 35 times and 30 times the PE of the appropriate annual performance, given the current blue chip stocks and the domestic and foreign funds swarming to buy, the PE was given 25 times PE in 2020 or 29 in 2019. The PE pricing is relatively reasonable. According to our profit forecast, the market value of the target price of 1030 yuan is 1.3 trillion, the corresponding PE of 2021 is 21.5 times.This target price and corresponding market value may also be a level that Moutai will maintain for quite a long time.Unless the company continues to increase the ex-factory price and maximize supply, the bar will accelerate the growth of profits again, otherwise the company’s estimate level will continue to increase and become the upper limit of the estimates and market value in the next two years. Eight, rational view of prices and risks Although the absolute and target prices are very high, compared to the current 850 yuan, the distance from the target price of 1,030 yuan is only 21%, which may also be the growth space for most of this year or next year.Just like Maotai’s dividend is 182.64 ppm, but the dividend yield is only 1.7%, which is a relatively low level in food and beverage high dividend companies.We should look at Maotai rationally and objectively, whether it is the price of wine or the price of stocks.However, because Maotai has become a benchmark and the focus of the whole society, many things are easily magnified.At the same time, it also breeds certain risks. The greatest uncertainty in the future of Moutai is still the estimated level. We see that the sustainable adjustment in the second half of 2018 is estimated to return.If market sentiment and funding preferences change in the future, Moutai’s estimated hub will fall from 25 times to about 20 times, then the pressure it can withstand is relatively speaking. Risk reminder: The short-term exit of QFII and Kitakami funds may be the company’s biggest negative, and the proceeds of its sales are problems encountered in the sales of Maotai, the rapid growth of revenue and profits, or overseas financial fluctuations, and tight fundsContinue to withdraw.Other fundamentals are difficult to constitute an adverse impact on the company.