Haida Group (002311): Steady increase in convertible bond feed leader can be expected

Haida Group (002311): Steady increase in convertible bond feed leader can be expected

Incident Haida Group issued the “Public Issuance of Convertible Corporate Bonds Plan” (revised draft).

  The total size of the convertible corporate bonds to be issued this time does not exceed 30.

80 ppm, each face area is 100 yuan, the term is six years from the date of issuance, and the conversion period is from the first trading day six months after the end of the issuance to the maturity date of the convertible corporate bondsThe initial conversion price is not lower than the average price of the company’s stock trading 20 trading days before the date of the prospectus announcement.

  Our analysis and judgment of the funds raised for convertible bonds30.

8 billion, new feed production capacity of 298 was invested in the company’s public offering of convertible corporate bonds.

8 billion, of which 29.

$ 9.1 billion company 102 feed production line construction projects, 0.

$ 8.9 billion in repayments of bank loans.

  In 2018, the company’s feed sales volume was the largest in 1070, with an annual increase of 221.


The region where this investment project is located has undergone long-term market development. The company has laid a better market foundation and brand influence in this region, and it will add 298 after reaching production.

44 annual production capacity can effectively support the company’s future 2?
3-year capacity demand.

After the project is completed, the production scale of the company’s livestock and poultry and aquatic feed will be further expanded, which will help provide more high-quality feed products to the external market and the company’s internal breeding business group, improve the company’s sustainable profitability and core 杭州夜网论坛 competitiveness, and consolidate and enhance the companyLeading edge in the market.

  The company’s feed sales scale continued to expand, and its performance grew steadily.

12 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

13%, a growth rate of 0 in ten years.

54 points.

The sales volume of feed in Q1 2019 is 900 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 14%.

Among them, the sales of aquatic products increased by 13%, and the gross profit margin was flat; the sales of pig feed decreased by 20%, and the gross profit margin increased slightly; the sales of poultry feed increased by 30%, and the gross profit margin increased by 2%.

  The expansion of pig breeding scale brings increased performance. In 2015, the company began to deploy the pig breeding industry. In Guangdong, Hunan mainly adopts the “company + farmer” model. In Shandong, 苏州夜网论坛 it mainly adopts the self-propagation and self-support model.Make land reserves.

  In 2019Q1-3, the company’s pigs were gradually released around 550,000 heads. Since August 2019, the government has increased its support for pig farming, and the company’s layout in Guangdong may increase further.

In the context of high pig prices, the combined pig production volume continued to increase, and the company’s pig breeding business is expected to bring breakthrough breakthroughs to the company’s profits.

  Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2020 to be 490 respectively.

15 ppm and 590.

14 ppm, a year-over-year growth rate of 16.

27% and 20.

40%; net profit attributable to mother is 17.

2.7 billion and 20.

4.6 billion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

18% and 18.

47%; the company’s total share capital is 15.

8.1 billion, EPS is 1.

09 yuan / share and 1.

29 yuan / share, PE is 30.

6 times and 25.

9x, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: aquaculture is severely reduced by natural disasters; pig prices fluctuate sharply.

Aluminum Corporation of China (601600): 3Q19 results fell month-on-month due to falling alumina prices

Aluminum Corporation of China (601600): 3Q19 results fell month-on-month due to falling alumina prices

The 3Q19 results were lower than our expected company’s 3Q19 results: revenue of $ 145.7 billion, an annual growth of 16%, and net profit attributable to the mother 8.

10,000 yuan, corresponding profit 0.

05 yuan, down 45% every year.

In the third quarter of 19th, the company’s single quarter revenue was 5.08 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.

1%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

0 million, corresponding to a profit of 0.

The 01 yuan decreased by 84% year-on-year and 61% month-on-month, exceeding our expectations. The decrease in profit in the third quarter of 19th and the previous expectations were due to the decline in alumina prices.

Comments: 1) The average price of 19Q3 alumina dropped month-on-month.

In the third quarter of 19th, the domestic alumina market price fell 12% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum market price remained flat.

1-3Q19 Domestic alumina / electrolytic aluminum prices rose -5.

6% /-4.


2) 3Q19 comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1 from the previous month.

8ppt to 6.

4%, 1-3Q19 decreased by 2 compared with the previous.

0ppt to 7.


3) 19Q3 company management + R & D + financial expenses decreased by 1 compared with the previous quarter.

4.0 billion, of which management expenses fell by 1 chain.

600 million.

1-3Q19 + 17% / +8.

80,000 yuan, including management / R & D / financial expenses +2.

7 ppm / + 1.

700 million / + 4.

300 million.

4) 3Q19 sales expenses decreased by 5 compared with the previous month.

500 million.

5) 3Q19 asset disposal income 2.

700 million, a decrease of 2 from the previous month.

800 million, 1-3Q19 is 8.

300 million, an annual increase of 8.


In the third quarter of 19, assets + credit impairment losses were -1 from the previous quarter.

9 ‰, 1-3Q19 decreased by 3.

0 million.

6) 3Q19 investment + gains from changes in fair value decreased by 0 from the previous month.

1.8 billion, 1-3Q19 six months +4.

700 million.7) The effective tax rate in 3Q19 was +9 from the previous quarter.

7ppt to 38.

0%, 1-3Q19 decade +2.

8ppt to 28.


Development trend Aluminum prices are supported by costs.

In the past 2 months, domestic spot stocks of electrolytic aluminum have fallen from 103 terminals to 86 inches.

Since the end of August, domestic alumina prices have gradually rebounded by about 80 yuan / ton, partly affected by environmental protection factors, and coal prices have been supported by the rise in prices during the peak season in the fourth quarter. We believe that electrolytic aluminum 上海夜网论坛 prices must maintain costs.

Earnings forecasts and estimates are based on changes in assumptions such as prices and costs. We lower our 2019/20 earnings forecasts for A and H shares to 36% / 11% to 10.



The current A / H shares previously corresponded to 38.

4x / 24.

3 times 2020 price-earnings ratio.

The stock maintains a neutral rating and 3.

Target price of 80 yuan (estimated switch), corresponding to 42.

1x 2020 P / E ratio, 9 compared with the same period last year.

8% upside.

H shares maintain a neutral rating and 3.

10 expected target price (estimated switch), corresponding to 30.

8 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, compared with 26 in the same period last year.

5% upside.

Risks of electrolytic aluminum and alumina prices have fallen sharply.

Qibin Group (601636) Semi-annual Report: Focus on Deep Processing and Optimize Industrial Structure

Qibin Group (601636) Semi-annual Report: Focus on Deep Processing and Optimize Industrial Structure

Investment Highlights: Event: Recently, the company announced its 2019 semi-annual report, and the company’s 19H1 revenue was 40.

7 ppm, +7 throughout the year.

9%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

200 million, a year -20.

9%; EPS is 0.

19 yuan.

The company’s second quarter revenue was 22.

300 million, +5 per year.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

1 ‰, at least -7.


Comments: 19H1 sales growth is good, the decline in prices led to a decline in gross profit margin; 19Q2 decline in gross profit margin narrowed.

Under the influence of the low base of sales in 2018H1 (the three cold-repaired 南京桑拿网 production lines of Changxing, Zhangzhou and Liling in 2018H1 have been ignited and resumed production, and normal production capacity will take a certain amount of time), the glass sales of 2019H1 is 54.07 million heavy boxes, +12 above.


In terms of price, 2019H1 glass trend is weak, affected by this company’s 19H1 unit heavy box glass revenue (full income caliber) is 75.

2 yuan a year -3.

1 yuan; the cost of a single box of glass is 55.

4 yuan, +1 a year.

6 yuan.

Affected by this, the consolidated gross profit margin of the company in 19H1 was 26.

4% a year -5.

0pct, of which the gross profit margin for the second quarter was 28.

0%, year -1.

5%, a narrower decline than in the first quarter.

The cost of a single box decreased slightly, and the decline in net interest rate in 19Q2 narrowed.

19H1 company’s single-box glass period cost (tax, three fees) is 9.

8 yuan a year -1.

1 yuan, mainly due to performance rewards, repair costs, equity incentive costs have dropped significantly, driving down management costs.

19H1 single box net profit is 9.

6 yuan, -4 a year.

0 yuan.

The company’s 19Q1 and 19Q2 net profit margins were 11 respectively.

4%, 13.

8%, respectively double -8.

0, -1.

9 points.

Continue to enhance the competitiveness of glass deep processing and increase the layout of the entire industry chain.

On the upstream side, the company completed the holding of Liling Jinsheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and obtained the mining right of Shibapo Mine in Pukou Town, Liling City, forming 4 supporting silica sand mines in Zhangzhou, Fujian, Heyuan, Hunan, and Yinzhou, Hunan.The company’s Yinzhou Qibin ultra-white glass production line was put into production in January 2019, and the Liling 65t / d electronic glass project was ignited in late July 2019. At the same time, Guangdong Energy Conservation Phase 2 expansion, Zhejiang Energy Conservation Capacity Extension and Hunan Energy Conservation Project construction were started.

Maintain “Highest Market” rating.

The company’s rational incentive mechanism has completed two rounds of stock option incentives in 2016 and 2017, granting a total of approximately 7% of the total share capital, taking into account new and old employees, original films and deep processing teams. The future deep processing layout is worth looking forward to.

Since listing in 2011, the company has implemented 7 cash dividends, and gradually distributed cash dividends of 25 after listing.

5.7 billion, with an average annual cash dividend ratio of 58 since listing.


The company promises 2017?
In 2021, after the full statutory statutory provident fund and any provident fund, the cash dividends distributed to shareholders each year shall not be less than 50% of the distributable profits realized in that year.

We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

46, 0.

51, 0.

57 yuan / share for the company’s 2019 PE9?
11 times, reasonable value range 4.


06 yuan.

risk warning.

1) The industry’s resumed production capacity was put in more than expected; 2) The cost of raw 青岛夜网 materials went higher than expected; 3) The progress of deep processing failed to meet expectations.

Evergreen Group (002616): 2 + 11 Combined Heat and Power Project Put into Production in the Next Two Years to Help High Growth

Evergreen Group (002616): 2 + 11 Combined Heat and Power Project Put into Production in the Next Two Years to Help High Growth
Highlights of the report Business analysis: It is estimated that 2 + 11 new projects will be put into operation in two years, and the stable cash flow of the heating business has been put into operation.-In 2018, the average utilization hours were more than 8,200, ranking first in the industry. If you can choose the site selection capabilities, mature fuel procurement system and operation management capabilities.The company’s first coal-fired ultra-low-emission combined heat and power project, the Mancheng project, was put into 厦门夜网 operation in 2018, achieving a revenue of about 200 million US dollars and a net profit of 4191 million. The construction of the remaining steam supply network of the Mancheng Paper Industry Park is expected to completeThere is still room for improvement in the company’s heat load and profitability.  There are 13 projects expected to converge the probability of internal production in the next two years, involving two centralized heating projects and 11 biomass cogeneration projects, with a total installed capacity of about 455MW; the company suspended in 2016-2018 with unclear subsidy policiesThe new material project was put into operation to stabilize the operation of the heating cash flow project, and the pace and mode of construction were accurately controlled.The construction progress of projects under construction is a key factor affecting the release of the company’s performance. Google Earth satellite images can be used to efficiently observe the construction progress of the project.  Industry analysis: Capacity investment and construction are accelerating, and the competition pattern is to be stabilized. Cogeneration is the policy encouragement direction. Until the end of 2018, the proportion of installed capacity of CHP-generated material projects.1% (ten years +3.8pct). The “13th Five-Year Plan” increased the speed of new installations. At the end of 2017, the planned value for 2020 (7GW) was completed ahead of schedule and reached 8 at the end of 2018.06GW.In 2018, the industry-wide utilization hours were only 4895, a decrease of 773 hours, and the efficiency of industry participation in operation was significantly different.Katie Ecology (market share 17).2%), national energy biology (12.1%) was the previous duopoly, and Evergreen Group ranked 10th in installed capacity (1.26GW, with a market share of 1.6%); Kaidi has a huge annual limit, plans to sell assets on hand to ease the cash flow, the industry layout is expected to increase variables.  Financial analysis: During the period of increased leverage and high interest rates, companies focusing on constructive fund supply are currently in the stage of construction of reserve projects, with high debts, high-yield expenditures, and high-construction projects. At the end of 2018, the asset-liability ratio was 58%, which increased 19pct at the end of 2016.It is estimated that about 3.9 billion capital investment is still needed for projects under construction; monetary funds are available at hand (2.400 million) + new loans (3.9 billion, reaching 70% asset-liability ratio) + convertible bonds (800 million) total available funds of about 49.400 million; and the project can contribute stable cash flow after the project is put into operation, and the company has no financial pressure for the time being.  Investment strategy: The annualized return on equity is about 11%. The project construction progress is the key to profit. Assume that the project will be put into operation as scheduled. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent will be 2 in 2019-2021.7.3 billion, 4.5.7 billion, 5.950,000 yuan, the annual growth rate is 64%, 67%, 30%, corresponding to EPS are 0.37 yuan / share, 0.53 yuan / share, 0.69 yuan / share (considering convertible bonds to stocks in 2020), the compound performance growth rate in the next three years will be 46%; the corresponding PE will be 18x, 13x, 10x respectively; the first coverage will be given an “overweight” rating.WACC takes 6.93%, take 8 grams.At 49%, the reasonable equity value of the company corresponding to FCFF and FCFE is estimated to be 8 billion US dollars and 7.1 billion US dollars; the annualized return rate of shares 上海夜网论坛 is about 11%.Risk reminders: risk of cancellation or decline of biomass electricity price compensation; risk of lagged construction progress; risk of tightening financing environment.

Tunnel Shares (600820) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Steady Growth in Performance 19Q1 Orders Rebound

Tunnel Shares (600820) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Steady Growth in Performance 19Q1 Orders Rebound
2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, gross profit margin continued to increase.2019Q1 performance has steadily increased, and construction business orders have stabilized and rebounded.Taking into account the gradual recovery of infrastructure and the intensive approval of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions, and their sustainability is better, we maintain our 2019/20 EPS forecast (0.70/0.78 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 0.86 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. 2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, construction / design business achieved growth rate of +16.6% / + 26.8%.The company’s 2018 revenue was 372.700 million, +18 a year.2%; net profit attributable to mother 19.800 million, +9 per year.3%, corresponding to EPS 0.63 yuan, +8 for ten years.6%.In terms of business, construction / design / operation / mechanical processing revenue was 338/17.7/5.0/3.9 trillion, ten years +16.6% / + 26.8% /-0.4% /-3.1%.The company’s 2019Q1 revenue was 66.700 million, +13 in ten years.6%, net profit attributable to mother 4.2 ‰, +7 a year.34%.In 2019, the company’s target for revenue and net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 8% -10%. We believe that the beneficiary infrastructure is gradually picking up, and the intensive approval and recent continuity of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions are better, and the company’s performance is expected to maintain steady growth. Comprehensive gross profit margin +0.6pct to 12.6%, period expense ratio -1.1 to 7.9%, an additional increase leads to a net inflow of financing cash flow of 30.500 million.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2018 was 12.6%, +0 per year.6pcts, mainly due to the gross profit margin of the design services business, due to the rise in revenue share.The company’s comprehensive expense ratio is ten years -1.1 to 7.9%, sales / management / R & D / financial expenses supplement 0.1% / 3.twenty three.4% / 1.2%, about -0pct / -0.2pct / -0.7pct / + 0.3 points.The company accrued bad debts and impairment losses on available-for-sale financial assets of 57.17 million yuan (45.61 million yuan in the same period last year), which was mainly due to the accrual of 57.2 million bad debt losses.Net operating cash flow inflow 15.40,000 yuan (net inflow of 15 in the same period last year.300 million); net reduction in investment cash flow 41.60,000 yuan (net decrease of 18 in the same period last year.100 million US dollars, mainly due to increased investment in PPP projects and the reduction of equity transfer payments of BT companies; net cash flow from financing 30.5 ‰ (net decrease of 1 ‰ in the same period last year), mainly due to bond issuance and increased loans. The growth rate of construction orders in 2018 slowed down, and rail delivery orders were -37 for half a year.8%, municipal / building orders increased by 75% / 65.5%; New orders for construction orders in 2019Q1 pick up.In 2018, the company’s new chronic order was 58.9 billion yuan (ten years-9.74%), of which construction orders were 553.70,000 yuan (at least -12.0%); 2019Q1 company signed a new 112.60,000 yuan (ten years +9.5%), infrastructure recovery is gradually verified at the order side.Among the construction orders in 2018, Shanghai’s internal and external business was 198.200 million / 393.5 ‰, at least -4.9% / + 93.4%; underground / ground services are 323 respectively.700 million / 305.30,000 yuan (one year +79.2% / + 6.8%), domestic / overseas operations are 518 respectively.300 million / 35.500 million (year-12).4% /-4.8%); from the perspective of order types, rail transit / municipal / energy / road / housing / other businesses were 11.9 billion / 189.500 million / 48.200 million / 101.8 billion / 80.600 million / 14.600 million yuan (year-37.8% / + 75% /-6.5% /-49.5% / + 65.5% /-46.9%), municipal and real estate engineering orders increased rapidly.The 18-year new year’s single amount is 1 for long-term income.58 times, the 南京夜网论坛 company has ample orders in hand, major projects are making good progress, and new breakthroughs in the first quarter have steadily rebounded and the future performance is deterministic. The incentive mechanism is straightened out, and it is expected that the enthusiasm will be effectively mobilized.In December 2018, the company’s board of directors passed an incremental performance reward plan. After the net profit reaches the constraints in the three years from 2018 to 20, it will increase the incremental performance reward incentive object every year.Constraints include a net profit of 19 in 2018-20.60/21.30/23.00 ppm, a CAGR of 8 over the three years in 2017.3%, while setting targets for revenue and return on equity.According to our calculations, the maximum incremental performance rewards in 2018 may reach 15.85 million 夜来香体验网 yuan. Considering the coverage of the company’s main executives, the incentive is expected to effectively motivate the company. PPP risk factors: lower-than-expected risks of rail transit construction; PPP landing is less than expected. Investment proposal: 2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, gross profit margin continued to increase; performance in the first quarter of 2019 increased steadily, and construction business orders stabilized and rebounded.Taking into account the gradual recovery of infrastructure and the intensive approval of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions, and their sustainability is better, we maintain our 2019/20 EPS forecast (0.70/0.78 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 0.86 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Huaneng International (600011) Company Quarterly Report Comment: New Chapter of Thermal Power Leader Promotes Continuous Improvement

Huaneng International (600011) Company Quarterly Report Comment: New Chapter of Thermal Power Leader Promotes Continuous Improvement

Huaneng International’s revenue in the first quarter increased by 5% to 456 in ten years.

500 million, net profit attributable to mothers increased 114% to 26 per year.

600 million.

Since 18Q3, Huaneng International has finally improved its trend of continuous profit growth.

After 北京夜生活网 Chairman Shu Yinbiao took office in 2018, he paid close attention to management. Huaneng Group (not Huaneng International) made a good start in the first quarter of 2019, and the overall revenue growth was only 9.

At 6%, profits increased by 65%.

As the main profitable asset and cash source of Huaneng Group, the company has been seeking changes. The 18 annual report company has planned wind power capital expenditures of US $ 24 billion in 19 years (an increase of approximately US $ 17 billion over the previous 18 years).

In our view, first of all, as the profit margin of wind power generally exceeds that of thermal power, the company’s profit margin may increase.

In fact, domestic wind power companies generally have PE estimates ranging from 14-40 times, and overall higher than thermal power. Expanding wind power business, the company expects the value to increase.

We think the 19Q1 company’s profit improvement represents the beginning of a new chairman and new leadership style. The company’s transformation is worth knowing, and the company’s investment value has already appeared.

The average price of electricity and electricity dropped due to the increase in income or heating income in 19Q1.

1. The company’s installed capacity is increasing by 1 every year.

In 6% of cases, the total power generation dropped by zero.

45%, indicating that the company’s utilization hours have decreased, which is mainly due to the low utilization hours of new energy generation, and the company’s new energy generation capacity increased by 84% (but the base is small, only 5.6 billion kilowatt hours).

2. The company’s coal-fired power generation reached 9.31 million kWh, a drop of over 2%.


We believe that in theory, the increase in high-priced new energy and the decrease in low-cost thermal power should lead to an increase in the company’s average electricity price, but the actual company’s overall electricity price has dropped by zero.

4% to 0.

At 422 yuan / kWh, we expect that it should be affected by the increase in the proportion of market bidding for electricity. A rough estimate is that the price of coal-fired electricity will drop by zero.

005 yuan / kWh.

In the case of simultaneous decline in electricity and electricity prices, the company’s total revenue has been changed to + 5% (+22.

300 million), we believe that it may be due to heating and other income growth.

From the cost side, the decline in the cost of coal per ton is the initial improvement of the company’s profit.

In 19Q1, the spot price of coal-fired coal dropped by about 14% (98 yuan / ton) every six months. The main reason for the company’s profit growth was the decline in fuel prices, while the operating cost actually decreased by 2%.

19 ppm (due to the relatively high cost of coal burning), if the rough calculation of 4,500 coal is followed, it will only decrease by 4.

86 yuan / ton, we expect mainly due to the increase in other business costs and contracted coal fell more than the actual reduction in actual ton coal cost should be greater than the rough estimate.

We believe that the thermal power industry’s estimates may welcome the opportunity for repair: 1. Demand is expected to start to fall in the near future, and investment opportunities in the thermal power sector are beginning to appear.

2. The core driving factors of thermal power fundamentals Coal prices are subject to various black swan incidents and uncertainties, but it is expected that the security inspection of Shaanxi coal mines will end at the end of June and more and more coal mines will be put into production with the passage of time.The trend will not change.

Investment suggestion: The company has come out of the haze of performance since Q3 of 18 years and has changed a lot in 19 years.

We believe that the new leader’s appointment has driven the company’s new weather. At the same time, the income has expanded and the scale of profit has improved. This has demonstrated the leader’s understanding of profitability. At the same time, the wind power investment plan has also revealed a series of new ideas. The company is expected to continue to improve in the future. We expect 19-21EPS are 0.



64 yuan, corresponding to 17 times PE in 19 years, we believe that the company’s leadership and management changes are worth giving an estimated premium, giving the company 20-22 times PE variation in 19 years, corresponding to a reasonable value interval 7.


36 yuan.

The company’s 19-year BPS was 5.

41 yuan, corresponding to PB1.

2 times, although with comparable company 1.The 0PB estimate is relatively expensive, but the company has a leading scale. In the past year, the PB estimate is about 50% higher than the comparable company’s PB estimate, so it is given 1 to the company.


5PB estimate, corresponding to a reasonable value interval 7.


12 yuan, a combination of the two estimation methods. As coal prices are in a downward trend in the future, earnings will improve significantly. Therefore, we believe that the company’s reasonable value range is 7.


36 yuan, maintain the “preliminary market” rating.

risk warning.

The timing of the decline in coal prices is uncertain.

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comments: 18Q4 income and profit outstanding 19 years of development can be expected

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comments: 18Q4 income and profit outstanding 19 years of development can be expected

At the core of the report, the company achieved total operating income of 795.

5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 16 over the same period last year.

89%, net profit 64.

5.2 billion yuan, an increase 青岛夜网 of 7 over the same period last year.


The core company reported operating income of 789.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 16.

92%, achieving net profit of 64.

4 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 7.


The layout of emerging industries has highlighted the advantages of industry leaders in resources.

For a long time, the company has made full use of global resources to promote innovation in the entire industrial chain, and actively built and consolidated the global dairy industry’s resource protection capabilities.

During the reporting period, the company maintained cooperative relationships with more than a hundred suppliers covering multiple industries, including raw and auxiliary materials, product packaging, and smart devices, in various countries and regions around the world, working together to improve product quality.

Excellent brand building ability and continuous innovation of high quality products.

During the reporting period, the “Golden Code” New Zealand imported milk and “Beffield” milk produced by the company’s Oceania production base were successively listed in the country; the company’s “Joy Day” ice cream entered the Indonesian market; in November 2018, the company acquired the largest ice cream in ThailandCompany THE CHOMTHANACOMPANY LIMITED.

By the end of December 2018, the company’s comprehensive production capacity was 1,094 oxides / year.

With nutritional and healthy quality, rich and unique flavor mix, and a vibrant product image, the company’s strategic synergy advantage under the global industrial chain layout has become more prominent.

The “BrandZTM Top 100 Most Valuable Chinese Brands” list shows that the “Yili” brand has once again ranked first in the food and dairy industry in the Most Valuable Chinese Brands list.

The channel sinks and the market share increases.

During the reporting period, the company’s channel penetration ability in the domestic market continued to increase, driving a steady increase in market share.

Kantar research data show that as of December 2018, the company’s market penetration of liquid dairy products at room temperature penetrated 82.

3%, an increase of 2.

2 averages.

During the reporting period, the company directly controlled nearly 60 village-level outlets.

80,000, an increase of 14 from the previous year.


Risk factors: epidemic prevention risks, dairy product quality risks, and food safety risks.

We expect: the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

152 yuan, 1.

316 yuan and 1.

495 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 24.

14 times, 21.

14 times and 18.

60 times, considering the company’s good upward momentum, given a target price of 28 times dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2019, 32.

26 yuan, give a buy rating.

One article understands how to build Shenzhen first move?

How to achieve the five in one

One article understands how to build Shenzhen “first move”?
How to achieve the five in one

[Macro Investment]How does Shenzhen “first move” build?

– “on the support of the Shenzhen building socialism with Chinese characteristics first demonstration zone” interpretation Source: Macro of investment: Xie Yaxuan HANGING Zhang Yiping, Liu Yaxin, Lin Shu, Gao, Zhang autumn event: August 18, the CPC Central Committee, State CouncilThe “Opinions on Supporting Shenzhen to Build a Socialist Pioneering Demonstration Zone with Chinese Characteristics” was issued, hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”.

  Interpretation: How to build Shenzhen “first move”?

The “Opinions” are based on Shenzhen’s current “significant achievements” and “have become an international and innovative city”, from the “five-in-one” deployment of economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, social construction, and ecological civilization to the present to 2025In 2035, in the middle of this century, the strategic plan to build Shenzhen into a 杭州夜网 pioneering demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics also marked that Shenzhen would become a city with a “five-in-one” positioning.

  The following is the content of the text: 1. Strategic positioning, reform intensity and overall structure1.
Looking at the strategic positioning from the guiding ideology and development goals, the first is the “seize the important approach to the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and enhance the core engine function” proposed in the guiding ideology.Not Guangzhou or Hong Kong.

  The second is the development of “modernized internationalized and innovative city by 2025”, “constructed a capital of innovation and entrepreneurship with global influence by 2035”, and “competitive, innovative and influential by the middle of this centuryGlobal “benchmark city”.

It can be seen that the “Opinions” is a strategic plan for the world for the next 30 years.

  2.From the safeguard measures to see the strength of the reform and the importance of safeguard measures (18) The legal policy guarantee states that “everyone involved in the adjustment of the existing laws, relevant parties shall propose relevant measures to the NPC Standing Committee in accordance with legal procedures, after authorization or decisionImplementation; if the adjustment of the existing administrative regulations is involved, the relevant parties shall implement it after authorization or decision by the State Council according to legal procedures.

  The implementation of the safeguard measures (nineteen) proposed the “Leadership of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Construction Leading Group, the central government and the relevant departments of the state organs to guide and coordinate, and to report major issues to the Party Central Committee according to the procedures.

Guangdong Province has done a good job of guidance and support, and Shenzhen has all the responsibilities forever.

“Visibility is high.

The specific measures for the construction of the “Five-in-One” overall demonstration pilot zone continue the general layout of the “Five-in-One” formulated by the “Party’s Nineteenth National Congress”, which is divided into economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, and social construction.5 aspects of ecological civilization construction.

Let’s analyze it in detail.

  Second, economic construction: The introduction of expansion production factors in the first demonstration zone economic construction includes four aspects: implementing innovation-driven development, building a modern industrial system, forming a new pattern of comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, and leading the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Figure 2).

The most important reform ideas should be the introduction of complementary production factors, which are mainly reflected in the following four aspects: First, technological innovation-building major innovation carriers, global scientific and technological cooperation organizations and platforms, strategic emerging innovation centers; implementation of key core technologiesTackling operations.

  The second is intellectual property-exploring intellectual property securitization and establishing a proprietary trading center for intellectual property and scientific and technological achievements.

  The third is the introduction of talents-reform the talent introduction and immigration management system.

International talents with permanent residency status are allowed to set up technology-based enterprises in Shenzhen and act as legal representatives of scientific research institutions.

  The fourth is financial reform-reforming the GEM, researching digital currencies, further opening up financial markets, internationalizing the RMB and cross-border financial supervision.

  3. Political construction: Make full use of the legislative power of the special economic zones. The political construction of the demonstration zone includes three aspects: comprehensively improving the level of democracy and the rule of law, optimizing government management and services, and promoting the modernization of social governance (Figure 3).

The main measures not only gradually make up for the “Central Committee’s Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform” adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, that is, taking the relationship between the government and the market as the core reform object, but also combining Shenzhen experience in government reformIn order to achieve higher goals, the most notable measures include: 1.
“Expand people’s orderly political participation under the leadership of the party.”

  2.”With the full use of the legislative power of the Special Economic Zone, in accordance with the basic principles of the Constitution, laws, and administrative regulations, Shenzhen is allowed to base its reforms and innovations on the needs of practice and to adapt the laws, administrative regulations, and local regulations in accordance with the authorization.”

  3. Advanced governance: improve the bankruptcy system of enterprises, comprehensively implement “list management”, improve the unified social credit platform, and improve the privacy protection mechanism.

  4. Cultural Construction: Positioning the Pioneering Demonstration Zone for Shenzhen’s Transformation of the Cultural Center Cultural construction includes two aspects: urban spiritual civilization construction, cultural industry and tourism development (Figure 4), which has transformed the urban positioning of the cultural center for Shenzhen.Important cultural functions have disadvantages: 1.
“Further promote the open and pluralistic, compatible and inclusive urban culture and the courage to take the initiative, dare to be the first, and work hard in the spirit of the SAR, vigorously promote the humanistic spirit of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, integrate socialist core values into all aspects of social development, and accelerate constructionA regional cultural center city and a modern civilized city showing the soft power of the country’s culture.

“Encourage Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Macau to jointly organize various forms of cultural and artistic activities, carry out the protection of major cross-border cultural heritage, cultivate the cultural heritage of the same origin, and continuously enhance the identity and cohesion of Hong Kong and Macao compatriots.

“Five-five, social construction: education, medical care, social security, housing first demonstration zone, social construction includes two aspects: the development of education and medical care, and improve social security (Figure 5), which specifically includes education reform first trial, medical service expansion and opening upThe social security system has a unified service platform and “One Card” management, and there are five aspects in Hong Kong and Macao residents ‘”citizens’ residence” and real estate management (a long-term market mechanism, a guaranteed housing system, and a talented housing system).

  6. Ecological construction: Ecological civilization system and green development pattern The demonstration of ecological civilization in the pilot zone includes two aspects: a sound ecological civilization system and a new pattern of urban green development (Figure 6).

  Institutional construction includes requirements for “party and government responsibilities, one post and two responsibilities” for government agencies, and “zero tolerance” for illegal activities; it also includes ecological civilization assessment and assessment systems for enterprises and other social organizations, and ecosystem service value accounting; andNew requirements for policy innovations such as environmental credit assessment, mandatory disclosure of information, environmental public interest litigation, and permanent basic farmland protection.

  Green development actions include sewage, natural disaster destruction (including Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area emergency management cooperation), green technology innovation systems, dual-control actions and water-saving cities.

Cobos (603486): Industry pressure leader frustrated, internal work waiting to be spent

Cobos (603486): Industry pressure leader frustrated, internal work waiting to be spent
Events On October 29, 2019, Cobos released the third quarter report of 2019. The company achieved total operating revenue of 34 in 2019Q1-3.4.5 billion, down 8 every year.18%; net profit attributable to mothers1.01 billion, down 64 a year.81%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to 0.8.7 billion, down 69 every year.41%. In terms of quarters, the company achieved revenue of 10 in Q3.1.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.18%; net profit attributable to mother-0.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 137.99%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to -0.37 trillion, down 147 a year.2%. Brief Comment 1. The vacuum sweeping robot is under pressure. The poor revenue performance of Q3 is affected by the overall growth of the domestic consumer market. The vacuum cleaner has stalled in 2019.Zhong Yikang pushes the total data to show that the retail volume and retail value of vacuum cleaners in Q1 2019 are repeatedly inserted into 5 respectively.22%, 9.46%; of which Q3 retail volume in a single quarter, the amount is extended by 6 each year.42%, 18.60%, the zoom range is further expanded. In recent years, sweeping robots, which have grown as locomotives for vacuum cleaners, have also performed weakly.According to the data of Zhongyikang, the retail sales of domestic sweeping robots in 2019H1 continued to drop by 9%.2%. According to the monitoring of Tao data, the sales volume of Tmall & Taobao sweeping robot in 19Q1-3 dropped by 5 each.84%, down 7 a year ago.05%, under the condition of limited technological innovation, the market enthusiasm has declined. Affected by the overall coldness in the domestic sales industry, the strategic contraction of the service robot ODM business, and the high export base in 2018, the company’s 2019Q1-3 operating income replaced 8.18%, of which Q3 single quarter quarterly extension of 17.18%, the decline has expanded. 2. The gross profit margin is generally stable, expenses and expenses have increased, revenue has decreased, overseas investment in R & D has increased, and the company’s profit margin has declined. The company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in Q1 20191.01 billion, down 64 a year.81%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to 0.8.7 billion, down 69 every year.41%, Q3 single quarter return to mother net profit fell by 137.99%.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 37 in 19Q1-3.23%, an annual increase of 0.26 points; Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin was 37.12%, a decline of 0 per year.63 points. Market development and R & D investment continued to increase.19Q1-3 Company selling expenses 20.91%, an annual increase of 3.09pct, mainly due to the increase in overseas market and Timco brand development expenditure; Q3 single quarter sales expenses expenditure27.69%, an annual increase of 6.59 points.The 19Q1-3 management expense ratio (including R & D) was 12.42%, an annual increase of 2.69pct; Q3 single quarter management expense ratio increased by 3 year-on-year.94pct, mainly due to the company’s continued R & D investment, the increase in technical staff expansion budget.19Q1-3 financial expenses expense -0.36%; annual growth of 0.84pct, mainly due to exchange losses and increased cash discounts. 3. Shrink the main business of ODM business, focus on domestic sales and export development. Faced with industry challenges, the company strategically shrinks the service robot ODM business to reduce the impact of ODM business on its own brands, and concentrates resources to attract the main business of Cobos’ own brands.At the same time, the company continued to vigorously promote the development of cutting-edge technologies around its established plans.The reporting company’s investment in software and hardware technology for service robots based on machine vision and artificial intelligence has been increasing, and research costs in 19Q1-3 have increased by 30.27% to 1.9.6 billion yuan. In the domestic market, the company firmly focuses 南京桑拿网 on mid-to-high-end strategies and leads the market with new products and technologies. In the first half of the year, the sweeping robots, such as the LDS SLAM product T5 series and VSLAM product N5 series, received good market feedback, driving a high market sharePromotion.According to the data of Zhongyikang, the market share of Cobos ‘sweeping robot retail sales reached 48% in the first half of the year, with each increase of 8pc. In overseas markets, the company expanded its own brands in mainstream markets such as the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific by promoting channel and product upgradesMarket share.Revenues from 19H1 marine surgery Voss branded service robots increased by 39.08%. 4. Inventories, the scale of accounts receivable decreased, and operating cash flow improved. Inventories of the company in 19Q1-3 decreased compared with the same period in 18, and the company’s inventory was 12 at the end of the third quarter.80 ppm, a decrease of 12 from the same period last year.74%, inventory turnover days rose 33 days to 153 days. In terms of accounts receivable, the accounts receivable of the company in 19Q1-3 decreased by 4 compared with the same period last year.3% to 6.7.1 billion, 61 days of turnover, 15 days higher than the same period last year. The decline in operating cash flow narrowed, and the company realized operating cash flow of 119Q1-3.4.9 billion yuan, an increase of 88 over the same period last year.82%, of which Q3 achieved operating cash flow of -0 in a single quarter.9.7 billion, an annual increase of 76.3%, mainly due to the consumption of stocks in this period, reducing the purchase of raw materials. Investment advice: The company is a leader in the field of sweeping robots. It has significant advantages in terms of brand, technology and channels. It maintains a leading market share and is under pressure from the industry’s drag on performance.Facing market challenges, the company strengthened its internal research and development, streamlined its business and focused on its main business, and made great efforts to develop overseas markets.We expect the company to achieve revenue of 50 in 2019-2020.6, 55.7 trillion, change -11 each year.40%, 10.00%, net profit of return to mother 1.61, 1.85 million, -66 each year.77%, 15.03%, corresponding to PE of 78 and 73X, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating. Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, demand for sweeping robots declines, market competition intensifies, and the trade environment deteriorates.

Skyworth Digital (000810): Efficiency improvement + cost bonus Q1 gross margin improvement

Skyworth Digital (000810): Efficiency improvement + cost bonus Q1 gross margin improvement

Event: Skyworth Digital released the 2019 first quarter report.

According to the announcement, the company achieved revenue of 20 in Q1 2019.

500 million, a year-on-year increase of +7.

7%; achieve performance 1.

200 million, a year-on-year increase of +78.


We believe that Skyworth Digital is a leader in set-top boxes and will benefit from the recently launched “Ultra HD Video Industry Development Action Plan.”

Absolutely, the company is committed to transforming from a hardware vendor to an intelligent system overall solution provider, and its future development is worth looking forward to.

Q1 gross profit margin increased significantly: Skyworth 2019 Q1 gross profit margin was 20.

2%, +4 per year.


The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the following reasons: 1) The industrial chain integration has achieved significant results and operating efficiency has increased.

2) The price of raw materials such as DDR is at a low level, and the gross profit margin of set-top box business is reduced and increased.

We believe that the current prices of raw materials such as memory chips are in the downward channel. After the company ‘s ultra-high-definition set-top box displacement increases, the product structure is optimized, and Skyworth ‘s profitability is still improving.

Q1 net operating cash flow: 2019Q1 Skyworth net operating cash flow was -4.

6 trillion, -3 in the same period last year.

10,000 yuan.

The cash flow in the first quarter was mainly due to: 1) At the end of March 2019, the company’s accounts receivable and bills receivable totaled 49.

0 million yuan, an increase of 4.

30,000 yuan, affecting the sales of goods in the first quarter of 2019, the amount of cash received for providing labor services.

2) According to the announcement, the tax refund received by the company in 2019Q1 is reduced.

We believe that Skyworth’s operations are stable, and it is expected that future cash flows will improve through subsequent receivables.

Benefiting from industrial policies, it is estimated that the volume of ultra-high-definition set-top boxes: According to the development plan of the ultra-high-definition video industry, by 2022, the number of ultra-high-definition users in the country will reach 200 million.

According to Glan’s research data, as of the end of 2018, the number of domestic cable UHD TV users was limited to 13.25 million.

The increase in the number of UHD users will generate a large number of 4K and 8K set-top box orders.

As a leader in the set-top box industry, Skyworth acknowledges R & D investment and has the advantages of technology and scale. It will be the biggest beneficiary.

According to the announcement, Skyworth R & D expenses for 2019Q1 were 1.

100 million, a year-on-year increase of +40.


The network access business has great potential for development: expansion. Radio and television are promoting fiber-to-the-home projects throughout the country. At present, the proportion of fiber-to-the-home is less than 20%, and there is great room for development.

We believe that Skyworth is a professional supplier of network access equipment and has a stable 南宁桑拿 cooperative relationship with radio and television. It is expected that the company’s business will maintain high growth.

According to the announcement, in 2018, network access equipment realized revenue4.

600 million, a year-on-year increase of +162.

2%, we expect that this business is expected to continue this growth trend in Q1 2019.

Investment suggestion: The company is a leading domestic set-top box company, actively deploying operational services, benefiting from favorable policies and falling costs. We expect the company’s future performance to grow rapidly.

We expect 4K order dividends to replace 2019Q4?
Beginning in 2020Q1, the company in 2019?The EPS in 2020 are 0.


59 yuan, maintain Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 14.
75 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic P / E ratio of 25 times in 佛山桑拿网 2020.

Risk warning: rising raw material prices, risks of overseas trade policies, slower-than-expected progress in policy implementation