Evergreen Group (002616): 2 + 11 Combined Heat and Power Project Put into Production in the Next Two Years to Help High Growth

Evergreen Group (002616): 2 + 11 Combined Heat and Power Project Put into Production in the Next Two Years to Help High Growth
Highlights of the report Business analysis: It is estimated that 2 + 11 new projects will be put into operation in two years, and the stable cash flow of the heating business has been put into operation.-In 2018, the average utilization hours were more than 8,200, ranking first in the industry. If you can choose the site selection capabilities, mature fuel procurement system and operation management capabilities.The company’s first coal-fired ultra-low-emission combined heat and power project, the Mancheng project, was put into 厦门夜网 operation in 2018, achieving a revenue of about 200 million US dollars and a net profit of 4191 million. The construction of the remaining steam supply network of the Mancheng Paper Industry Park is expected to completeThere is still room for improvement in the company’s heat load and profitability.  There are 13 projects expected to converge the probability of internal production in the next two years, involving two centralized heating projects and 11 biomass cogeneration projects, with a total installed capacity of about 455MW; the company suspended in 2016-2018 with unclear subsidy policiesThe new material project was put into operation to stabilize the operation of the heating cash flow project, and the pace and mode of construction were accurately controlled.The construction progress of projects under construction is a key factor affecting the release of the company’s performance. Google Earth satellite images can be used to efficiently observe the construction progress of the project.  Industry analysis: Capacity investment and construction are accelerating, and the competition pattern is to be stabilized. Cogeneration is the policy encouragement direction. Until the end of 2018, the proportion of installed capacity of CHP-generated material projects.1% (ten years +3.8pct). The “13th Five-Year Plan” increased the speed of new installations. At the end of 2017, the planned value for 2020 (7GW) was completed ahead of schedule and reached 8 at the end of 2018.06GW.In 2018, the industry-wide utilization hours were only 4895, a decrease of 773 hours, and the efficiency of industry participation in operation was significantly different.Katie Ecology (market share 17).2%), national energy biology (12.1%) was the previous duopoly, and Evergreen Group ranked 10th in installed capacity (1.26GW, with a market share of 1.6%); Kaidi has a huge annual limit, plans to sell assets on hand to ease the cash flow, the industry layout is expected to increase variables.  Financial analysis: During the period of increased leverage and high interest rates, companies focusing on constructive fund supply are currently in the stage of construction of reserve projects, with high debts, high-yield expenditures, and high-construction projects. At the end of 2018, the asset-liability ratio was 58%, which increased 19pct at the end of 2016.It is estimated that about 3.9 billion capital investment is still needed for projects under construction; monetary funds are available at hand (2.400 million) + new loans (3.9 billion, reaching 70% asset-liability ratio) + convertible bonds (800 million) total available funds of about 49.400 million; and the project can contribute stable cash flow after the project is put into operation, and the company has no financial pressure for the time being.  Investment strategy: The annualized return on equity is about 11%. The project construction progress is the key to profit. Assume that the project will be put into operation as scheduled. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent will be 2 in 2019-2021.7.3 billion, 4.5.7 billion, 5.950,000 yuan, the annual growth rate is 64%, 67%, 30%, corresponding to EPS are 0.37 yuan / share, 0.53 yuan / share, 0.69 yuan / share (considering convertible bonds to stocks in 2020), the compound performance growth rate in the next three years will be 46%; the corresponding PE will be 18x, 13x, 10x respectively; the first coverage will be given an “overweight” rating.WACC takes 6.93%, take 8 grams.At 49%, the reasonable equity value of the company corresponding to FCFF and FCFE is estimated to be 8 billion US dollars and 7.1 billion US dollars; the annualized return rate of shares 上海夜网论坛 is about 11%.Risk reminders: risk of cancellation or decline of biomass electricity price compensation; risk of lagged construction progress; risk of tightening financing environment.

Tunnel Shares (600820) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Steady Growth in Performance 19Q1 Orders Rebound

Tunnel Shares (600820) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Steady Growth in Performance 19Q1 Orders Rebound
2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, gross profit margin continued to increase.2019Q1 performance has steadily increased, and construction business orders have stabilized and rebounded.Taking into account the gradual recovery of infrastructure and the intensive approval of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions, and their sustainability is better, we maintain our 2019/20 EPS forecast (0.70/0.78 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 0.86 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. 2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, construction / design business achieved growth rate of +16.6% / + 26.8%.The company’s 2018 revenue was 372.700 million, +18 a year.2%; net profit attributable to mother 19.800 million, +9 per year.3%, corresponding to EPS 0.63 yuan, +8 for ten years.6%.In terms of business, construction / design / operation / mechanical processing revenue was 338/17.7/5.0/3.9 trillion, ten years +16.6% / + 26.8% /-0.4% /-3.1%.The company’s 2019Q1 revenue was 66.700 million, +13 in ten years.6%, net profit attributable to mother 4.2 ‰, +7 a year.34%.In 2019, the company’s target for revenue and net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 8% -10%. We believe that the beneficiary infrastructure is gradually picking up, and the intensive approval and recent continuity of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions are better, and the company’s performance is expected to maintain steady growth. Comprehensive gross profit margin +0.6pct to 12.6%, period expense ratio -1.1 to 7.9%, an additional increase leads to a net inflow of financing cash flow of 30.500 million.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2018 was 12.6%, +0 per year.6pcts, mainly due to the gross profit margin of the design services business, due to the rise in revenue share.The company’s comprehensive expense ratio is ten years -1.1 to 7.9%, sales / management / R & D / financial expenses supplement 0.1% / 3.twenty three.4% / 1.2%, about -0pct / -0.2pct / -0.7pct / + 0.3 points.The company accrued bad debts and impairment losses on available-for-sale financial assets of 57.17 million yuan (45.61 million yuan in the same period last year), which was mainly due to the accrual of 57.2 million bad debt losses.Net operating cash flow inflow 15.40,000 yuan (net inflow of 15 in the same period last year.300 million); net reduction in investment cash flow 41.60,000 yuan (net decrease of 18 in the same period last year.100 million US dollars, mainly due to increased investment in PPP projects and the reduction of equity transfer payments of BT companies; net cash flow from financing 30.5 ‰ (net decrease of 1 ‰ in the same period last year), mainly due to bond issuance and increased loans. The growth rate of construction orders in 2018 slowed down, and rail delivery orders were -37 for half a year.8%, municipal / building orders increased by 75% / 65.5%; New orders for construction orders in 2019Q1 pick up.In 2018, the company’s new chronic order was 58.9 billion yuan (ten years-9.74%), of which construction orders were 553.70,000 yuan (at least -12.0%); 2019Q1 company signed a new 112.60,000 yuan (ten years +9.5%), infrastructure recovery is gradually verified at the order side.Among the construction orders in 2018, Shanghai’s internal and external business was 198.200 million / 393.5 ‰, at least -4.9% / + 93.4%; underground / ground services are 323 respectively.700 million / 305.30,000 yuan (one year +79.2% / + 6.8%), domestic / overseas operations are 518 respectively.300 million / 35.500 million (year-12).4% /-4.8%); from the perspective of order types, rail transit / municipal / energy / road / housing / other businesses were 11.9 billion / 189.500 million / 48.200 million / 101.8 billion / 80.600 million / 14.600 million yuan (year-37.8% / + 75% /-6.5% /-49.5% / + 65.5% /-46.9%), municipal and real estate engineering orders increased rapidly.The 18-year new year’s single amount is 1 for long-term income.58 times, the 南京夜网论坛 company has ample orders in hand, major projects are making good progress, and new breakthroughs in the first quarter have steadily rebounded and the future performance is deterministic. The incentive mechanism is straightened out, and it is expected that the enthusiasm will be effectively mobilized.In December 2018, the company’s board of directors passed an incremental performance reward plan. After the net profit reaches the constraints in the three years from 2018 to 20, it will increase the incremental performance reward incentive object every year.Constraints include a net profit of 19 in 2018-20.60/21.30/23.00 ppm, a CAGR of 8 over the three years in 2017.3%, while setting targets for revenue and return on equity.According to our calculations, the maximum incremental performance rewards in 2018 may reach 15.85 million 夜来香体验网 yuan. Considering the coverage of the company’s main executives, the incentive is expected to effectively motivate the company. PPP risk factors: lower-than-expected risks of rail transit construction; PPP landing is less than expected. Investment proposal: 2018 revenue +18.2%, net profit attributable to mother +9.3%, gross profit margin continued to increase; performance in the first quarter of 2019 increased steadily, and construction business orders stabilized and rebounded.Taking into account the gradual recovery of infrastructure and the intensive approval of the recent rail transit plans in the relevant regions, and their sustainability is better, we maintain our 2019/20 EPS forecast (0.70/0.78 yuan), plus EPS forecast for 2021 is 0.86 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Huaneng International (600011) Company Quarterly Report Comment: New Chapter of Thermal Power Leader Promotes Continuous Improvement

Huaneng International (600011) Company Quarterly Report Comment: New Chapter of Thermal Power Leader Promotes Continuous Improvement

Huaneng International’s revenue in the first quarter increased by 5% to 456 in ten years.

500 million, net profit attributable to mothers increased 114% to 26 per year.

600 million.

Since 18Q3, Huaneng International has finally improved its trend of continuous profit growth.

After 北京夜生活网 Chairman Shu Yinbiao took office in 2018, he paid close attention to management. Huaneng Group (not Huaneng International) made a good start in the first quarter of 2019, and the overall revenue growth was only 9.

At 6%, profits increased by 65%.

As the main profitable asset and cash source of Huaneng Group, the company has been seeking changes. The 18 annual report company has planned wind power capital expenditures of US $ 24 billion in 19 years (an increase of approximately US $ 17 billion over the previous 18 years).

In our view, first of all, as the profit margin of wind power generally exceeds that of thermal power, the company’s profit margin may increase.

In fact, domestic wind power companies generally have PE estimates ranging from 14-40 times, and overall higher than thermal power. Expanding wind power business, the company expects the value to increase.

We think the 19Q1 company’s profit improvement represents the beginning of a new chairman and new leadership style. The company’s transformation is worth knowing, and the company’s investment value has already appeared.

The average price of electricity and electricity dropped due to the increase in income or heating income in 19Q1.

1. The company’s installed capacity is increasing by 1 every year.

In 6% of cases, the total power generation dropped by zero.

45%, indicating that the company’s utilization hours have decreased, which is mainly due to the low utilization hours of new energy generation, and the company’s new energy generation capacity increased by 84% (but the base is small, only 5.6 billion kilowatt hours).

2. The company’s coal-fired power generation reached 9.31 million kWh, a drop of over 2%.


We believe that in theory, the increase in high-priced new energy and the decrease in low-cost thermal power should lead to an increase in the company’s average electricity price, but the actual company’s overall electricity price has dropped by zero.

4% to 0.

At 422 yuan / kWh, we expect that it should be affected by the increase in the proportion of market bidding for electricity. A rough estimate is that the price of coal-fired electricity will drop by zero.

005 yuan / kWh.

In the case of simultaneous decline in electricity and electricity prices, the company’s total revenue has been changed to + 5% (+22.

300 million), we believe that it may be due to heating and other income growth.

From the cost side, the decline in the cost of coal per ton is the initial improvement of the company’s profit.

In 19Q1, the spot price of coal-fired coal dropped by about 14% (98 yuan / ton) every six months. The main reason for the company’s profit growth was the decline in fuel prices, while the operating cost actually decreased by 2%.

19 ppm (due to the relatively high cost of coal burning), if the rough calculation of 4,500 coal is followed, it will only decrease by 4.

86 yuan / ton, we expect mainly due to the increase in other business costs and contracted coal fell more than the actual reduction in actual ton coal cost should be greater than the rough estimate.

We believe that the thermal power industry’s estimates may welcome the opportunity for repair: 1. Demand is expected to start to fall in the near future, and investment opportunities in the thermal power sector are beginning to appear.

2. The core driving factors of thermal power fundamentals Coal prices are subject to various black swan incidents and uncertainties, but it is expected that the security inspection of Shaanxi coal mines will end at the end of June and more and more coal mines will be put into production with the passage of time.The trend will not change.

Investment suggestion: The company has come out of the haze of performance since Q3 of 18 years and has changed a lot in 19 years.

We believe that the new leader’s appointment has driven the company’s new weather. At the same time, the income has expanded and the scale of profit has improved. This has demonstrated the leader’s understanding of profitability. At the same time, the wind power investment plan has also revealed a series of new ideas. The company is expected to continue to improve in the future. We expect 19-21EPS are 0.



64 yuan, corresponding to 17 times PE in 19 years, we believe that the company’s leadership and management changes are worth giving an estimated premium, giving the company 20-22 times PE variation in 19 years, corresponding to a reasonable value interval 7.


36 yuan.

The company’s 19-year BPS was 5.

41 yuan, corresponding to PB1.

2 times, although with comparable company 1.The 0PB estimate is relatively expensive, but the company has a leading scale. In the past year, the PB estimate is about 50% higher than the comparable company’s PB estimate, so it is given 1 to the company.


5PB estimate, corresponding to a reasonable value interval 7.


12 yuan, a combination of the two estimation methods. As coal prices are in a downward trend in the future, earnings will improve significantly. Therefore, we believe that the company’s reasonable value range is 7.


36 yuan, maintain the “preliminary market” rating.

risk warning.

The timing of the decline in coal prices is uncertain.

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comments: 18Q4 income and profit outstanding 19 years of development can be expected

Yili shares (600887) 2018 annual report comments: 18Q4 income and profit outstanding 19 years of development can be expected

At the core of the report, the company achieved total operating income of 795.

5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 16 over the same period last year.

89%, net profit 64.

5.2 billion yuan, an increase 青岛夜网 of 7 over the same period last year.


The core company reported operating income of 789.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 16.

92%, achieving net profit of 64.

4 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 7.


The layout of emerging industries has highlighted the advantages of industry leaders in resources.

For a long time, the company has made full use of global resources to promote innovation in the entire industrial chain, and actively built and consolidated the global dairy industry’s resource protection capabilities.

During the reporting period, the company maintained cooperative relationships with more than a hundred suppliers covering multiple industries, including raw and auxiliary materials, product packaging, and smart devices, in various countries and regions around the world, working together to improve product quality.

Excellent brand building ability and continuous innovation of high quality products.

During the reporting period, the “Golden Code” New Zealand imported milk and “Beffield” milk produced by the company’s Oceania production base were successively listed in the country; the company’s “Joy Day” ice cream entered the Indonesian market; in November 2018, the company acquired the largest ice cream in ThailandCompany THE CHOMTHANACOMPANY LIMITED.

By the end of December 2018, the company’s comprehensive production capacity was 1,094 oxides / year.

With nutritional and healthy quality, rich and unique flavor mix, and a vibrant product image, the company’s strategic synergy advantage under the global industrial chain layout has become more prominent.

The “BrandZTM Top 100 Most Valuable Chinese Brands” list shows that the “Yili” brand has once again ranked first in the food and dairy industry in the Most Valuable Chinese Brands list.

The channel sinks and the market share increases.

During the reporting period, the company’s channel penetration ability in the domestic market continued to increase, driving a steady increase in market share.

Kantar research data show that as of December 2018, the company’s market penetration of liquid dairy products at room temperature penetrated 82.

3%, an increase of 2.

2 averages.

During the reporting period, the company directly controlled nearly 60 village-level outlets.

80,000, an increase of 14 from the previous year.


Risk factors: epidemic prevention risks, dairy product quality risks, and food safety risks.

We expect: the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

152 yuan, 1.

316 yuan and 1.

495 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 24.

14 times, 21.

14 times and 18.

60 times, considering the company’s good upward momentum, given a target price of 28 times dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2019, 32.

26 yuan, give a buy rating.

One article understands how to build Shenzhen first move?

How to achieve the five in one

One article understands how to build Shenzhen “first move”?
How to achieve the five in one

[Macro Investment]How does Shenzhen “first move” build?

– “on the support of the Shenzhen building socialism with Chinese characteristics first demonstration zone” interpretation Source: Macro of investment: Xie Yaxuan HANGING Zhang Yiping, Liu Yaxin, Lin Shu, Gao, Zhang autumn event: August 18, the CPC Central Committee, State CouncilThe “Opinions on Supporting Shenzhen to Build a Socialist Pioneering Demonstration Zone with Chinese Characteristics” was issued, hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”.

  Interpretation: How to build Shenzhen “first move”?

The “Opinions” are based on Shenzhen’s current “significant achievements” and “have become an international and innovative city”, from the “five-in-one” deployment of economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, social construction, and ecological civilization to the present to 2025In 2035, in the middle of this century, the strategic plan to build Shenzhen into a 杭州夜网 pioneering demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics also marked that Shenzhen would become a city with a “five-in-one” positioning.

  The following is the content of the text: 1. Strategic positioning, reform intensity and overall structure1.
Looking at the strategic positioning from the guiding ideology and development goals, the first is the “seize the important approach to the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and enhance the core engine function” proposed in the guiding ideology.Not Guangzhou or Hong Kong.

  The second is the development of “modernized internationalized and innovative city by 2025”, “constructed a capital of innovation and entrepreneurship with global influence by 2035”, and “competitive, innovative and influential by the middle of this centuryGlobal “benchmark city”.

It can be seen that the “Opinions” is a strategic plan for the world for the next 30 years.

  2.From the safeguard measures to see the strength of the reform and the importance of safeguard measures (18) The legal policy guarantee states that “everyone involved in the adjustment of the existing laws, relevant parties shall propose relevant measures to the NPC Standing Committee in accordance with legal procedures, after authorization or decisionImplementation; if the adjustment of the existing administrative regulations is involved, the relevant parties shall implement it after authorization or decision by the State Council according to legal procedures.

  The implementation of the safeguard measures (nineteen) proposed the “Leadership of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Construction Leading Group, the central government and the relevant departments of the state organs to guide and coordinate, and to report major issues to the Party Central Committee according to the procedures.

Guangdong Province has done a good job of guidance and support, and Shenzhen has all the responsibilities forever.

“Visibility is high.

The specific measures for the construction of the “Five-in-One” overall demonstration pilot zone continue the general layout of the “Five-in-One” formulated by the “Party’s Nineteenth National Congress”, which is divided into economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, and social construction.5 aspects of ecological civilization construction.

Let’s analyze it in detail.

  Second, economic construction: The introduction of expansion production factors in the first demonstration zone economic construction includes four aspects: implementing innovation-driven development, building a modern industrial system, forming a new pattern of comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, and leading the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Figure 2).

The most important reform ideas should be the introduction of complementary production factors, which are mainly reflected in the following four aspects: First, technological innovation-building major innovation carriers, global scientific and technological cooperation organizations and platforms, strategic emerging innovation centers; implementation of key core technologiesTackling operations.

  The second is intellectual property-exploring intellectual property securitization and establishing a proprietary trading center for intellectual property and scientific and technological achievements.

  The third is the introduction of talents-reform the talent introduction and immigration management system.

International talents with permanent residency status are allowed to set up technology-based enterprises in Shenzhen and act as legal representatives of scientific research institutions.

  The fourth is financial reform-reforming the GEM, researching digital currencies, further opening up financial markets, internationalizing the RMB and cross-border financial supervision.

  3. Political construction: Make full use of the legislative power of the special economic zones. The political construction of the demonstration zone includes three aspects: comprehensively improving the level of democracy and the rule of law, optimizing government management and services, and promoting the modernization of social governance (Figure 3).

The main measures not only gradually make up for the “Central Committee’s Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform” adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, that is, taking the relationship between the government and the market as the core reform object, but also combining Shenzhen experience in government reformIn order to achieve higher goals, the most notable measures include: 1.
“Expand people’s orderly political participation under the leadership of the party.”

  2.”With the full use of the legislative power of the Special Economic Zone, in accordance with the basic principles of the Constitution, laws, and administrative regulations, Shenzhen is allowed to base its reforms and innovations on the needs of practice and to adapt the laws, administrative regulations, and local regulations in accordance with the authorization.”

  3. Advanced governance: improve the bankruptcy system of enterprises, comprehensively implement “list management”, improve the unified social credit platform, and improve the privacy protection mechanism.

  4. Cultural Construction: Positioning the Pioneering Demonstration Zone for Shenzhen’s Transformation of the Cultural Center Cultural construction includes two aspects: urban spiritual civilization construction, cultural industry and tourism development (Figure 4), which has transformed the urban positioning of the cultural center for Shenzhen.Important cultural functions have disadvantages: 1.
“Further promote the open and pluralistic, compatible and inclusive urban culture and the courage to take the initiative, dare to be the first, and work hard in the spirit of the SAR, vigorously promote the humanistic spirit of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, integrate socialist core values into all aspects of social development, and accelerate constructionA regional cultural center city and a modern civilized city showing the soft power of the country’s culture.

“Encourage Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Macau to jointly organize various forms of cultural and artistic activities, carry out the protection of major cross-border cultural heritage, cultivate the cultural heritage of the same origin, and continuously enhance the identity and cohesion of Hong Kong and Macao compatriots.

“Five-five, social construction: education, medical care, social security, housing first demonstration zone, social construction includes two aspects: the development of education and medical care, and improve social security (Figure 5), which specifically includes education reform first trial, medical service expansion and opening upThe social security system has a unified service platform and “One Card” management, and there are five aspects in Hong Kong and Macao residents ‘”citizens’ residence” and real estate management (a long-term market mechanism, a guaranteed housing system, and a talented housing system).

  6. Ecological construction: Ecological civilization system and green development pattern The demonstration of ecological civilization in the pilot zone includes two aspects: a sound ecological civilization system and a new pattern of urban green development (Figure 6).

  Institutional construction includes requirements for “party and government responsibilities, one post and two responsibilities” for government agencies, and “zero tolerance” for illegal activities; it also includes ecological civilization assessment and assessment systems for enterprises and other social organizations, and ecosystem service value accounting; andNew requirements for policy innovations such as environmental credit assessment, mandatory disclosure of information, environmental public interest litigation, and permanent basic farmland protection.

  Green development actions include sewage, natural disaster destruction (including Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area emergency management cooperation), green technology innovation systems, dual-control actions and water-saving cities.

Cobos (603486): Industry pressure leader frustrated, internal work waiting to be spent

Cobos (603486): Industry pressure leader frustrated, internal work waiting to be spent
Events On October 29, 2019, Cobos released the third quarter report of 2019. The company achieved total operating revenue of 34 in 2019Q1-3.4.5 billion, down 8 every year.18%; net profit attributable to mothers1.01 billion, down 64 a year.81%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to 0.8.7 billion, down 69 every year.41%. In terms of quarters, the company achieved revenue of 10 in Q3.1.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.18%; net profit attributable to mother-0.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 137.99%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to -0.37 trillion, down 147 a year.2%. Brief Comment 1. The vacuum sweeping robot is under pressure. The poor revenue performance of Q3 is affected by the overall growth of the domestic consumer market. The vacuum cleaner has stalled in 2019.Zhong Yikang pushes the total data to show that the retail volume and retail value of vacuum cleaners in Q1 2019 are repeatedly inserted into 5 respectively.22%, 9.46%; of which Q3 retail volume in a single quarter, the amount is extended by 6 each year.42%, 18.60%, the zoom range is further expanded. In recent years, sweeping robots, which have grown as locomotives for vacuum cleaners, have also performed weakly.According to the data of Zhongyikang, the retail sales of domestic sweeping robots in 2019H1 continued to drop by 9%.2%. According to the monitoring of Tao data, the sales volume of Tmall & Taobao sweeping robot in 19Q1-3 dropped by 5 each.84%, down 7 a year ago.05%, under the condition of limited technological innovation, the market enthusiasm has declined. Affected by the overall coldness in the domestic sales industry, the strategic contraction of the service robot ODM business, and the high export base in 2018, the company’s 2019Q1-3 operating income replaced 8.18%, of which Q3 single quarter quarterly extension of 17.18%, the decline has expanded. 2. The gross profit margin is generally stable, expenses and expenses have increased, revenue has decreased, overseas investment in R & D has increased, and the company’s profit margin has declined. The company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in Q1 20191.01 billion, down 64 a year.81%; net profit deducted from non-attribution to 0.8.7 billion, down 69 every year.41%, Q3 single quarter return to mother net profit fell by 137.99%.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 37 in 19Q1-3.23%, an annual increase of 0.26 points; Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin was 37.12%, a decline of 0 per year.63 points. Market development and R & D investment continued to increase.19Q1-3 Company selling expenses 20.91%, an annual increase of 3.09pct, mainly due to the increase in overseas market and Timco brand development expenditure; Q3 single quarter sales expenses expenditure27.69%, an annual increase of 6.59 points.The 19Q1-3 management expense ratio (including R & D) was 12.42%, an annual increase of 2.69pct; Q3 single quarter management expense ratio increased by 3 year-on-year.94pct, mainly due to the company’s continued R & D investment, the increase in technical staff expansion budget.19Q1-3 financial expenses expense -0.36%; annual growth of 0.84pct, mainly due to exchange losses and increased cash discounts. 3. Shrink the main business of ODM business, focus on domestic sales and export development. Faced with industry challenges, the company strategically shrinks the service robot ODM business to reduce the impact of ODM business on its own brands, and concentrates resources to attract the main business of Cobos’ own brands.At the same time, the company continued to vigorously promote the development of cutting-edge technologies around its established plans.The reporting company’s investment in software and hardware technology for service robots based on machine vision and artificial intelligence has been increasing, and research costs in 19Q1-3 have increased by 30.27% to 1.9.6 billion yuan. In the domestic market, the company firmly focuses 南京桑拿网 on mid-to-high-end strategies and leads the market with new products and technologies. In the first half of the year, the sweeping robots, such as the LDS SLAM product T5 series and VSLAM product N5 series, received good market feedback, driving a high market sharePromotion.According to the data of Zhongyikang, the market share of Cobos ‘sweeping robot retail sales reached 48% in the first half of the year, with each increase of 8pc. In overseas markets, the company expanded its own brands in mainstream markets such as the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific by promoting channel and product upgradesMarket share.Revenues from 19H1 marine surgery Voss branded service robots increased by 39.08%. 4. Inventories, the scale of accounts receivable decreased, and operating cash flow improved. Inventories of the company in 19Q1-3 decreased compared with the same period in 18, and the company’s inventory was 12 at the end of the third quarter.80 ppm, a decrease of 12 from the same period last year.74%, inventory turnover days rose 33 days to 153 days. In terms of accounts receivable, the accounts receivable of the company in 19Q1-3 decreased by 4 compared with the same period last year.3% to 6.7.1 billion, 61 days of turnover, 15 days higher than the same period last year. The decline in operating cash flow narrowed, and the company realized operating cash flow of 119Q1-3.4.9 billion yuan, an increase of 88 over the same period last year.82%, of which Q3 achieved operating cash flow of -0 in a single quarter.9.7 billion, an annual increase of 76.3%, mainly due to the consumption of stocks in this period, reducing the purchase of raw materials. Investment advice: The company is a leader in the field of sweeping robots. It has significant advantages in terms of brand, technology and channels. It maintains a leading market share and is under pressure from the industry’s drag on performance.Facing market challenges, the company strengthened its internal research and development, streamlined its business and focused on its main business, and made great efforts to develop overseas markets.We expect the company to achieve revenue of 50 in 2019-2020.6, 55.7 trillion, change -11 each year.40%, 10.00%, net profit of return to mother 1.61, 1.85 million, -66 each year.77%, 15.03%, corresponding to PE of 78 and 73X, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating. Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, demand for sweeping robots declines, market competition intensifies, and the trade environment deteriorates.

Skyworth Digital (000810): Efficiency improvement + cost bonus Q1 gross margin improvement

Skyworth Digital (000810): Efficiency improvement + cost bonus Q1 gross margin improvement

Event: Skyworth Digital released the 2019 first quarter report.

According to the announcement, the company achieved revenue of 20 in Q1 2019.

500 million, a year-on-year increase of +7.

7%; achieve performance 1.

200 million, a year-on-year increase of +78.


We believe that Skyworth Digital is a leader in set-top boxes and will benefit from the recently launched “Ultra HD Video Industry Development Action Plan.”

Absolutely, the company is committed to transforming from a hardware vendor to an intelligent system overall solution provider, and its future development is worth looking forward to.

Q1 gross profit margin increased significantly: Skyworth 2019 Q1 gross profit margin was 20.

2%, +4 per year.


The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the following reasons: 1) The industrial chain integration has achieved significant results and operating efficiency has increased.

2) The price of raw materials such as DDR is at a low level, and the gross profit margin of set-top box business is reduced and increased.

We believe that the current prices of raw materials such as memory chips are in the downward channel. After the company ‘s ultra-high-definition set-top box displacement increases, the product structure is optimized, and Skyworth ‘s profitability is still improving.

Q1 net operating cash flow: 2019Q1 Skyworth net operating cash flow was -4.

6 trillion, -3 in the same period last year.

10,000 yuan.

The cash flow in the first quarter was mainly due to: 1) At the end of March 2019, the company’s accounts receivable and bills receivable totaled 49.

0 million yuan, an increase of 4.

30,000 yuan, affecting the sales of goods in the first quarter of 2019, the amount of cash received for providing labor services.

2) According to the announcement, the tax refund received by the company in 2019Q1 is reduced.

We believe that Skyworth’s operations are stable, and it is expected that future cash flows will improve through subsequent receivables.

Benefiting from industrial policies, it is estimated that the volume of ultra-high-definition set-top boxes: According to the development plan of the ultra-high-definition video industry, by 2022, the number of ultra-high-definition users in the country will reach 200 million.

According to Glan’s research data, as of the end of 2018, the number of domestic cable UHD TV users was limited to 13.25 million.

The increase in the number of UHD users will generate a large number of 4K and 8K set-top box orders.

As a leader in the set-top box industry, Skyworth acknowledges R & D investment and has the advantages of technology and scale. It will be the biggest beneficiary.

According to the announcement, Skyworth R & D expenses for 2019Q1 were 1.

100 million, a year-on-year increase of +40.


The network access business has great potential for development: expansion. Radio and television are promoting fiber-to-the-home projects throughout the country. At present, the proportion of fiber-to-the-home is less than 20%, and there is great room for development.

We believe that Skyworth is a professional supplier of network access equipment and has a stable 南宁桑拿 cooperative relationship with radio and television. It is expected that the company’s business will maintain high growth.

According to the announcement, in 2018, network access equipment realized revenue4.

600 million, a year-on-year increase of +162.

2%, we expect that this business is expected to continue this growth trend in Q1 2019.

Investment suggestion: The company is a leading domestic set-top box company, actively deploying operational services, benefiting from favorable policies and falling costs. We expect the company’s future performance to grow rapidly.

We expect 4K order dividends to replace 2019Q4?
Beginning in 2020Q1, the company in 2019?The EPS in 2020 are 0.


59 yuan, maintain Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 14.
75 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic P / E ratio of 25 times in 佛山桑拿网 2020.

Risk warning: rising raw material prices, risks of overseas trade policies, slower-than-expected progress in policy implementation

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk
Commentary event: The company announced the 2018 annual report, which reported a real revenue of 771.99 trillion, an increase of 26.43%; net profit attributable to mother 352.4 billion, an increase of 30.00%; deduct non-profit 355.8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30.71%; net operating cash flow was 413.8.5 billion, an increase of 86.82%; EPS is 28.02, with the same increase of 30.00%; Blacks are now 14.539 yuan, 51 cash dividends.88%.Report the overall gross profit margin 91.14%, net interest rate is 51.37%, increase by 1 each year.34 points, 1.55 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of liquor is 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.In the fourth quarter alone, revenue was 222.3 billion, an increase of 34.12%; net profit attributable to mother 104.70 trillion, an increase of 47.56%; gross profit margin during the period was 91.19%, net interest rate 52.62%. First, the performance in 2018 exceeded expectations; in the fourth quarter alone, the volume and price of Maotai liquor rose, but the ton price exceeded the expected long-term total revenue of US $ 77.2 billion and net profit of US $ 35.2 billion, exceeding the previous stage expectations of more than 2.2 billion and 1.2 billion yuan, respectively.The early performance indicators (revenue + 15%) were over-fulfilled and again exceeded expectations.In terms of breakdown, alcohol sales, hotels, net interest and commission income were 735 respectively.6.4 billion.7.4 billion, 34.24 ppm, an increase of 26 each year.47%, 50.60%, 26.37%.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 654.8.7 billion, an increase of 24.99%; series wine income is 80.77 trillion, an increase of 39.88%.Volume and price breakdown, Moutai sales of 32,464 tons (the same increase of 7.48%), the ton price is 201.720,000 yuan (same increase of 16.29%); sales of 29,774 tons of wine (slightly down 0.43%), the price per ton is 27.130,000 yuan (the same increase of 40.49%).Contribution of price to income and profit increments. Generally speaking, the sales volume of Moutai wine exceeded expectations, and the price exceeded expectations; the sales volume of series wines met expectations, and the ton price exceeded expectations.Moutai wine sales plan for 2018 2.8 initial, actual sales 3.25 Initially, more than 4,500 tons, more than 2,000 tons more than the market expected of 3.In the ten years of 2018, Pfeiffer raised the price by 18.32%, but the average ton price of Moutai has only increased by 16.29%, allegedly the price or sales ratio of non-standard products exceeded expectations.In our judgment, the sales rate of non-standard products with a higher ton price increased from about 27% in 2017 to more than 30% in 2018. The subsequent expectations are mainly prices. The increase in the price of non-standard products in the future and the expansion of the sales ratio meanThere is space.The increase in the ton price of the series of wine is 10 pct higher than expected to reach 270,000. In addition to the direct price increase of the product, the unexpected place is the introduction of the zodiac concept and the structural upgrade.The series of wines are expected to usher in better development, the structure of the series of wines will continue to be upgraded, and the ton price is expected to rise again. Revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 222.3 billion, net profit 104.7 billion, single quarter revenue of more than 20 billion, and profits of more than 10 billion are the first time in history.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 192.22 trillion, the same increase of 37.40%; series wine income 21.4.4 billion, an increase of 22.11%.The volume and price of Moutai liquor have all risen, with an estimated 17% increase in measurement and a 17% increase in price.5%.Although there are expectations ahead of the Spring Festival in 2019, the volume of Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter is still higher than expected.Considering the volume of non-standard products such as boutique Moutai and Zodiac, the market expects a higher price for Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter of the year, but the volume of Pufei and the price increase of non-standard products exceed expectations, which collectively led to the ton price in the fourth quarter.It was also significantly lower than expected. Second, various profit indicators have continued to improve, and it is expected that there will be room for growth in 2019. The overall gross profit margin in 2018 is 91.14%, an increase of 1 per year.34 points; gross profit margin of liquor 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of Maotai Liquor was 93.74%, an increase of 0 a year.92pct, slightly lower than expected; gross margin of the series 71.05%, an increase of 8 a year.30pct became a new highlight.After the Pfeiffer ex-factory price was raised to 969 yuan, the market expects a higher gross profit margin for Moutai, but it may be because the non-standard ex-factory price increase has not been achieved in one step, and the gross profit margin is slightly lower than expected.The gross profit margin in 2019 is expected to increase further with non-standard further price increases, product structure upgrades, channel adjustments and ton prices. In terms of expenses, the overall selling expenses for 2018 were 25.72 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.7.3 billion, sales expense ratio decreased by 1.85 points to 3.33%.The management expense ratio (including R & D) increased slightly, surpassing 0.20pct to 6.90%.Financial expenses, because most of the company’s funds are collected under the centralized management of the company’s holding subsidiary Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd., operating efficiency and income have improved significantly.The three expense ratios are generally improving, and the increase in net profit margin is higher than the gross profit margin.Due to the increase in the marketing efforts of the series of wines in 2017, some expenses were replenished and the sales expenses were reduced. Looking at the combination of 2017 and 2018, the average annual compound growth in sales expenses was slowly declining.It is expected that the sales expense ratio will still maintain a steady downward trend. The management expense ratio will also help maintain stability and financial costs will continue to improve. The company’s various profit indicators continue to improve, and there is still room for further improvement in 2019 and in the longer term.The growth of 2019 performance is supported by the improvement of the average price, profit elasticity coefficient, gross profit margin and net profit margin. Third, the revenue target is likely to be achieved, and product structure upgrades and channel adjustments will improve performance. The company announced that its operating target for 2019 is to increase its total operating income by 14%.Combined with the group’s sprint target of 100 billion yuan, the company merged “faster than faster”, “jump up and pick peaches” and other tone settings, we judge the probability of achieving the revenue target is very high. According to the sales volume announced in the 2018 annual report, we estimate that the sales volume of Moutai top wine in 2019 may reach 3.45 baseline, an increase of 2,000 tons on the basis of 2018.However, if the technology is not perfect and the production and sales rate of the base wine remains unchanged, please ship in accordance with the top grid in 2019, and the sales volume in 2020 may shift by more than 8%.Due to the need for stable performance, we initially judge that the amount of Maotai liquor in 2019 will remain at the level of 2018 and will not increase. In 2018, due to the heavy volume of Profil, Profil’s share in the product structure is still high.With the limited production capacity and the need to accelerate the layout of various price bands, the proportion of Pufei will definitely fall in the future.In 2019, we look forward to seeing a rapid improvement in product structure.At the same time, there is still room for non-standard products to raise prices.According to the price forecast of 969 yuan by Pfeiffer, the ton price of non-standard products can be increased by at least 20% on the basis of 2017.The 2018 report shows that it is currently only increasing by less than 15%, and there is room for further improvement in 2019. In 2018, the number of Moutai liquor dealers decreased by 437, corresponding to the amount of confiscated plans. In the future, it will be mainly invested in direct sales and direct sales channels.If the total distribution contract is maintained in 2019, about 1.7In the initial period, if there is no increase or decrease, the amount of direct marketing and direct sales channels can theoretically reach 1.55 nominal, almost half.In terms of ex-factory ton prices, the average ton price of direct sales and direct sales is obviously higher than the ton price of distribution contracts, especially for direct e-commerce. In theory, the ex-factory price can be very close to the terminal guide price of 1499.By expanding the proportion of direct sales and direct sales, reducing and recycling channel revenue and profits, it is likely to be the most important support for performance improvement in 2019.We estimate through forecasting that the channel revenue adjustments that can be made in 2019 may be close to 10%. As a result, the revenue target has been reduced, channel adjustments contributed nearly 10%, structural upgrades contributed 3% -4%, and non-standard price increases contributed 1.About 5%, coupled with the increase in the income of series wines, and the continuous growth of periods, fees, commissions and other income, it is not difficult to achieve a total operating income increase of 14%. Fourth, advance receipts increased month-on-month, dealers made positive payments, and reported quarterly advance receipts to strive for a record high advance receipts of 135 at the end of 2018.7.7 billion, an increase of 24 from the end of the third quarter.09 ppm, resumes the trend of seasonal increase.At present, the dealers have started to pay for the goods in June, and some personalized products are paying for this.According to feedback from grassroots research, the first quarter of this year’s shipments will be better than the first quarter of 2018. According to the first quarter, the second quarter will account for about 33% of dealers’ plans and 22% for forecasting.The highest Moutai liquor value is more than 25%, which is expected to increase by billions on the basis of the 2018 annual report, which does not rule out the possibility of setting a new record high. According to the company’s plan and sales during the Spring Festival, we judge that the amount of the Spring Festival may be less than 7,500 tons, but the progress is much better than the 2018 Spring Festival, and the sales ratio of non-standard products such as zodiac wine is relatively high.Although the sales progress of the direct sales and direct sales channels slightly exceeded expectations, in general, the first quarter report has a good performance in terms of sales volume, product structure, and channel adjustment, and the first quarter report status will not be bad. V. Performance Judgment: The logic of performance growth in 2019 has changed slightly, and profits are more optimistic. Regarding the revenue target conversion we did before the announcement of the 2018 annual report, the logic of revenue and profit growth in 2019 has changed slightly.In 2018, the sales volume of Moutai was higher than expected, and the ton price was lower than expected. Therefore, under the circumstance that the performance base was raised, the revenue would continue to grow by more than 14%. The product structure upgrade and channel adjustment must be accelerated. Both measures eventually reflectedFor the average ton price.According to our latest breakdown, the contribution of prices to revenue and profit growth has increased significantly.The sales volume does not increase, and the expense rate and interest rate fall. After that, the profit elasticity will increase and the net interest rate will increase.Therefore, based on our judgment that the 14% revenue growth probability is realized, we also think that the profit in 2019 can be seen more optimistic, and it may exceed market expectations again. VI. Profit forecast In 2018, the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance, the performance will exceed expectations, and the base will be raised.The main goal of achieving revenue goals in 2019 is sustainable product structure upgrade and channel adjustment.At the same time, non-standard products may have further price increases.To sum up, the increase in income mainly 南宁桑拿 comes from the increase in ton price, and the elasticity coefficient of profit to price. 2019 is a crucial year for Maotai Group to sprint 100 billion yuan, and the proportion of listed companies’ contribution to group revenue and profit is very high.Therefore, achieving the stated goal of 14% revenue growth is an important task for listed companies.At present, the company leaders have sufficient confidence in achieving the revenue target. From the perspective of target segmentation, we also believe that it is not difficult to achieve the target.We believe that the market’s judgment is that we believe that the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance. As a result of the heavy tonnage price in 2019, the elasticity of profit will be somewhat greater, and net profit may be more optimistic. Taking into account the company’s business plan and new growth logic, we slightly adjusted our profit forecast and forecasted that the company’s revenue growth rate for 2019-2021 will be 15%, 13%, and 14%, and the net profit growth rate will be 27% and 16%, respectively., 16%, corresponding to an EPS of 35.52, 41.32, 47.94 yuan. We don’t consider Pfeiffer’s plan to continue to raise prices. We predict that the company’s revenue will increase by 13% and profit will increase by 16% in 2020.If Pfeiffer raises its price next year, it will definitely continue to increase its growth rate next year. 7. Future estimates and pricing take into account that foreign countries have seized the pricing power of Moutai, will not easily reduce their holdings, and may continue to buy, and that Moutai will still maintain a certain growth rate in the future, and the amount of alcohol produced will be from the current 3.2In the early stage, it increased to 4 in 5 years.97 samples, and 5 in the long run.6 Initial; ex-factory price will still have room for improvement, and net profit margin will still increase accordingly.Therefore, it is reasonable for Moutai to maintain an estimated hub of about 25 times in the next few years. In 2019, the PE of Moutai was 23 times. Taking into account the rationality and continuity of pricing, we price the company according to the estimated level of 2020, which is 25 times PE. The target price is 1030 yuan, corresponding to 29 times the PE in 2019. Considering that the expected highs of Moutai in 2017 and 2018 were 35 times and 30 times the PE of the appropriate annual performance, given the current blue chip stocks and the domestic and foreign funds swarming to buy, the PE was given 25 times PE in 2020 or 29 in 2019. The PE pricing is relatively reasonable. According to our profit forecast, the market value of the target price of 1030 yuan is 1.3 trillion, the corresponding PE of 2021 is 21.5 times.This target price and corresponding market value may also be a level that Moutai will maintain for quite a long time.Unless the company continues to increase the ex-factory price and maximize supply, the bar will accelerate the growth of profits again, otherwise the company’s estimate level will continue to increase and become the upper limit of the estimates and market value in the next two years. Eight, rational view of prices and risks Although the absolute and target prices are very high, compared to the current 850 yuan, the distance from the target price of 1,030 yuan is only 21%, which may also be the growth space for most of this year or next year.Just like Maotai’s dividend is 182.64 ppm, but the dividend yield is only 1.7%, which is a relatively low level in food and beverage high dividend companies.We should look at Maotai rationally and objectively, whether it is the price of wine or the price of stocks.However, because Maotai has become a benchmark and the focus of the whole society, many things are easily magnified.At the same time, it also breeds certain risks. The greatest uncertainty in the future of Moutai is still the estimated level. We see that the sustainable adjustment in the second half of 2018 is estimated to return.If market sentiment and funding preferences change in the future, Moutai’s estimated hub will fall from 25 times to about 20 times, then the pressure it can withstand is relatively speaking. Risk reminder: The short-term exit of QFII and Kitakami funds may be the company’s biggest negative, and the proceeds of its sales are problems encountered in the sales of Maotai, the rapid growth of revenue and profits, or overseas financial fluctuations, and tight fundsContinue to withdraw.Other fundamentals are difficult to constitute an adverse impact on the company.

Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): The first case of ZSP1273II intervention involved in the development of new influenza drugs has been successfully promoted

Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): The first case of ZSP1273II intervention involved in the development of new influenza drugs has been successfully promoted

Event: The company recently announced that the clinical trial of ZSP1273, an innovative drug for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and human avian influenza, organized by the holding subsidiary Guangdong Zhongsheng Ruichuang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has been conducted in 25 clinical studies across the country.The center is conducting a phase II clinical trial, and the first case has been enrolled.

Comments: 1.

ZSP1273 Phase II clinical trials have smoothly advanced the research and development progress in China, and Academician Zhong Nanshan served as PI.

ZSP1273 is a small-molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor intended for the treatment of influenza A and human avian influenza. It is the first domestic small-molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor to enter clinical stage II for the treatment of influenza A.

Preclinical tests have confirmed that the drug’s anti-influenza virus activity in vitro is about 1,000 times that of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir, and about 10 times that of the same target drug VX-787.

ZSP1273 has been proven to be safe and stable in pharmacokinetics in Phase I clinical trials. Academician Zhong Nanshan is the head of the project and research work for Phase II / III clinical trials.

The first phase II lawsuit was enrolled and is expected to end in the first half of 2020.

At present, the first patient of the ZSP1273 phase II clinical trial has been enrolled. It is expected that 400-50杭州桑拿0 cases will be completed by the first half of 2020. May 2020?
Data from Phase II clinical trials were obtained in June.

If the phase II clinical trial results are positive, the drug is expected to undergo phase III clinical trials in September 2020 and obtain phase III clinical trial data in the first half of 2021.

If the phase II and III clinical trials progress smoothly, the drug is expected to be declared for marketing in 2021.


Influenza has a high global incidence, and new drugs are generally susceptible to the entire population that is clinically needed, and the global incidence is high.

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses. Influenza A and B viruses are presented annually, and influenza A viruses can cause a global pandemic.

According to data from the World 都市夜网 Health Organization, about 5% -10% of adults and 20% -30% of children worldwide develop the flu each year, and about 3-5 million people develop severe influenza every year, which leads to about 290-650,000 cases.Respiratory disease-related deaths.

Antiviral drugs are an important line of defense, and oseltamivir is a first-line medication.

Influenza vaccination is an important means to prevent influenza, but due to the highly variability of influenza viruses, the role of vaccines is often escaped by influenza viruses, so drug therapy is an important line of defense for influenza viruses.

There are currently three types of anti-influenza virus drugs on the market, namely neuraminidase inhibitors, hemagglutinin inhibitors, and M2 ion channel blockers.

Neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir is the mainstream mainstream anti-influenza virus drug; the alternative method of paramivir is intravenous infusion, which is mainly used for severe or inability to take oral; zanamivir is taken by absorption, the market shareExtremely low.

Hemagglutinin inhibitor Abidol and M2 ion channel blocker amantadine, amantadine have not been awarded the “Influenza Diagnosis and Treatment Program (2019)” due to limited clinical data and elimination of current epidemic strains》 Mainstream recommendation.

Significance or trend, preliminary clinical demand for antiviral drugs.

The M2 ion channel blocker amantadine was marketed in 1966, and its derivative amantadine was marketed in 1987. At present, almost all popular influenza A virus strains have replaced such antiviral drugs.

The neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir was approved by the FDA in 1999 and has been on the market for over 20 years.

Oseltamivir was listed in China in 2001. In recent years, it has been rapidly increasing in volume, and there has also been a certain degree of recognition problems.

In this context, new anti-influenza virus drugs are clinically needed.


The market size of ZSP1273 is expected to reach 22.

There is a huge need for clinical treatment of 92 million anti-influenza virus drugs.

It can be seen that its spread is rapid, the entire population is generally susceptible, and it can cause substitution epidemics every year.

The annual incidence of adults is about 5% -10%, and the incidence of children is about 20% -30%.

In addition, the number of people at high risk of severe cases of hypertension and influenza is huge.

People suffering from chronic underlying diseases such as chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular system diseases, metabolic and endocrine system diseases are more likely to develop severe cases after being infected with influenza virus.

Sentinel surveillance data for inpatient SARI cases in China from 2011 to 2013 showed that 37% of patients with severe influenza had chronic underlying disease, of which cardiovascular disease (21.

5%), chronic two-year pulmonary disease (COPD) (7.

7%) and diabetes (7.

4%) is the most popular.

This type of severely high-risk group is necessary for antiviral treatment after being infected with influenza virus. It can also be administered in advance after exposure.

Based on the high incidence of the entire population and the large base of severely at-risk populations, the clinical use of recombinant anti-influenza virus drugs is in great demand.
At present, anti-influenza virus first-line treatment drugs can be used quickly and can achieve this type in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
10,000 yuan, 22.

470,000 yuan, 29 in the first half of 2019.

300,000 yuan, an annual increase of 116.


The market size of ZSP1273 is expected to reach 22.

9.2 billion yuan.

In the context of the current degree of toxicity of oseltamivir and the demand for new clinical anti-flu drugs, if the company’s new drug ZSP1273 is successfully marketed, it will gradually share the huge market of anti-flu virus drugs.

At the same time, the spread of knowledge on correcting the flu, the understanding of the difference between the flu and the common cold, and the overall rate of seeking medical treatment and antiviral treatment among people with flu have continued to increase.

With reference to the penetration rate and treatment costs of oseltamivir, Xofluza and other anti-flu drugs, we made a detailed calculation of the market space of the product.

We expect that if ZSP1273 is successfully listed, its market size is expected to reach about 22.

9.2 billion yuan.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The company’s traditional business has grown steadily, clinical trials of new drugs such as the new influenza drug ZSP1273 and NASH new drug ZSP1601 have been steadily progressing, and research and development results have gradually emerged.

The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

01, 28.

07 and 31.

30,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mothers is expected to reach 4 respectively.

73, 5.

21 and 5.

7.2 billion, EPS is 0.

58, 0.

64 and 0.

70 yuan, the current expected corresponding estimate is 17.

37, 15.

77 and 14.

36 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: risk of new drug development; risk of drug price reduction.

Kitakami funds buy buy buy: Aier Ophthalmology was favored by 1.8 billion Masukura last week

Kitakami funds buy buy buy: Aier Ophthalmology was favored by 1.8 billion Masukura last week

66 billion in half a day!

Funds from Kitakami continue to buy and buy. This GEM white horse stock is most favored. Securities Times · e company Mao Jun was affected by the continuous rise in the external market during the Dragon Boat Festival. Today A shares opened higher and higher, but the transaction volume did not significantly increaseThis shows that the wait-and-see atmosphere of market funds still prevails.

  At noon, the Shanghai index rose 0.

98%, SZSE Component Index rose 1.

61%, GEM Index rose 1.


Disk, 5G, rare earth and other sectors performed actively.

The pork, seed and other 重庆耍耍网 sectors fell the most.

  The two financing funds replaced the capital flow into the capital, and on the last trading day before the termination of the holiday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange financing balance was reported at 5466.

6.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35 from the previous trading day.

4.0 billion; Shenzhen Stock Exchange financing surplus reported 3551.

3.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 from the previous trading day.

400 million; the two cities totaled 9017.

9.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day.

US $ 4.4 billion, a net decrease for the sixth consecutive trading day.

  Obviously, the adjustment of the change of market conditions and the adjustment of some two-financial equity reforms caused the emergence of margin positions, resulting in the proportion of financing positions close to the financing monitoring indicators.

Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it found that the financial supervision indicators of six countries’ chemical industry reached 20.


In accordance with relevant regulations, when the financial monitoring index of a single stock reaches 25%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange may suspend its financing purchase on the next trading day and announce it to the market. Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks.

  On April 26, the sustainability of the six countries’ chemical industry is still high, and its financing surplus4.

2.2 billion yuan, accounting for 13.


With the reduction of the first quarterly report and the half-yearly report of the loss, the six-nation chemical industry has hit a limit for three consecutive days.

Before the festival, the financing balance of the six countries’ chemical industry4.

27 trillion US dollars, although the capital budget has not changed much, but the shareholding ratio has actually increased, and the shareholding ratio in the circulating market value is as high as 20.


Today, the six countries chemical industry attacked along with the broader market, surpassing more than 6%.

  The initial flow direction of Beishang funds is completely opposite to that of the two financing funds. Before the holiday, the capital of Beishang has been net bought for 4 consecutive trading days. Today, the net inflow again exceeded 6.6 billion yuan.

The week before the holiday, the most popular capital of the north is the new MSCI index of Aier Ophthalmology, Masukura 50.14 million shares, Masukura market value up to 18.

With 5.8 billion U.S. dollars, 35 shares including Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Wen’s shares, Tsingtao Brewery were also increased by over 100 million yuan.

  Hengrui Medicine was sold 12.76 million shares by Beijing Capital before the holiday, reducing its market value by more than 7.

5.9 billion US dollars; Hikvision was severely reduced by Beijing Capital’s capital because of related negative influences, and 28.25 million shares were sold by Beijing Capital before the holiday, reducing its market value6.

US $ 9.1 billion; Guizhou Moutai, which was the most favored capital of Beijing, was net-reduced for 7 consecutive weeks. Last week, Beijing Capital again sold more than 160,000 shares of Guizhou Moutai, reducing its market value1.

4.2 billion yuan.

  Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has held three consecutive meetings on rare industry issues. The target audience includes industry experts, rare earth enterprises and competent authorities of production areas. The main issues involved are rare earth environmental protection, rare earth black industry chain, rare intensive and high-end development.Wait.
In the early morning today, the rare earth sector collectively opened higher, with 6 stocks including Yuguang Gold Lead, Yinhe Zongheng, Dehong Co., Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, and Hengdian Dongci, Xiamen Tungsten, and Ningbo Yunsheng leading the gains.

  Hua Chuang Securities said that for an industry, such intensive actions and statements are rare.

The rare earth industry will have further policy promotion. A series of policies such as environmental protection inspection, index verification and strategic acquisition and storage will be released intensively to promote the development of the industry with a reasonable structure, advanced technology, effective protection of resources, and orderly production and operation of the industry.To give full play to the special value of rare earths as a strategic resource.Leading companies such as Minmetals Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources and others are trying to benefit.

  Today, the 5G sector has once again strengthened, with the daily limit of 17 shares such as Monternet, Monternet, Sobeth, and Kexin Technology, such as Huichang, Yueling, and China Stone Technology.

  On the last trading day before the holiday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 5G commercial licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Radio and Television, marking that China officially entered the first year of 5G business.

Because the previous 5G concept was speculated in advance, a large number of profitable disks emerged after the news was released, causing the 5G concept index to fall by 4.


  CITIC Construction Investment said that the RF front-end chip is the core of communication. Through the upgrade of communication technology, the value of RF chips continues to increase.

The RF chip market is temporarily occupied by overseas giants. The US and Japanese oligarchs together account for 90% of the front-end market.

Demand for domestic front-end replacement of RF front-ends is strong, and policy support is firm.

We are optimistic about domestic leading-edge RF chip design leader Zhuo Shengwei, compound semiconductor manufacturing leader Sanan Optoelectronics, and focus on radio-frequency solution platform makers Xinwei Communication, radio-frequency device maker Weil Co., Ltd., Tiantong Co., Ltd. and McGee Technology.

  Reduced holdings plunged this week, the stock market will usher in a wave of 100 billion lifting of the ban.

In the past two months, the downturn in the A-share market has continued to spread, with the transaction volume expected to be less than 400 billion.

Risk aversion for market funds is heating up, and under this background, individual stocks facing lifting of the ban are under pressure.

  Today, Industrial Fulian 4.

900 million restricted shares were lifted.

Every month at noon drops 8.


The Ningde era will be lifted to about 9 tomorrow.

800 million restricted shares, accounting for 44 of the company’s total share capital.

64%, the actual number of shares available for circulation is about 9.

600 million shares, accounting for 43 of the company’s total share capital.


At the monthly closing price of 69 today.

At 67 yuan, the market value of lifting the ban is as high as about 66.9 billion yuan.

  In addition, stocks that announced reductions fell sharply across the board today.

  Boteng shares announced on the evening of the 6th that the company ‘s actual controlling shareholders, namely Nianfeng, Tao Rong, and Zhang Hebing (the three of whom are acting in concert) holding a total of 35% of the company ‘s shares, plan to reduce the total holdings of the company ‘s shares by not more than 71 million shares, that is, not exceeding the total13 of the share capital.


In the early morning today, Boteng opened lower and went lower, closing at noon every night.


  Qixin shares announced yesterday that due to capital requirements, the company’s controlling shareholder Zhida Holdings and its affiliate Ye Xiudong planned to reduce its shareholding in the company within 2 months to no more than 2443.

530,000 shares, accounting for 10% of the company’s total share capital.


The combined shareholders currently hold a total shareholding ratio of 47.


Qixin shares opened in early trading at a price of more than 9%.

  Du Xuan, the largest shareholder of Golden Securities, plans to reduce the company’s shares by no more than 2%; Chairman Zhao Jian intends to reduce his shares by no more than one.

87% of shares; director, senior vice president Xu Yibo intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.

76% of shares; shareholder Lian Liyang intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.

1% stake.

The opening of the Golden Securities Co., Ltd. today is a direct limit.

  Tian He defense controller He Zenglin and his concerted action person Liu Danying plan to reduce the company’s shareholding by no more than 14.4 million shares in the next six months, that is, not more than 6% of the total share capital.Tianhe Defense also opened with a daily limit today. Although it has risen a bit since then, it has still dropped 7.

twenty three%.

  The recently announced reduction plans of Tianxia Wisdom, Meijin Energy, Fuman Electronics, and Dunhuang Seeds all fell down on the next trading day of the announcement. Investors of listed companies with recent reduction plans and a large number of lifting of banned stocks should be treated with caution.