Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk


Guizhou Moutai (600519) Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise Again and Exceed Expectations to Redefine Space and Risk
Commentary event: The company announced the 2018 annual report, which reported a real revenue of 771.99 trillion, an increase of 26.43%; net profit attributable to mother 352.4 billion, an increase of 30.00%; deduct non-profit 355.8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30.71%; net operating cash flow was 413.8.5 billion, an increase of 86.82%; EPS is 28.02, with the same increase of 30.00%; Blacks are now 14.539 yuan, 51 cash dividends.88%.Report the overall gross profit margin 91.14%, net interest rate is 51.37%, increase by 1 each year.34 points, 1.55 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of liquor is 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.In the fourth quarter alone, revenue was 222.3 billion, an increase of 34.12%; net profit attributable to mother 104.70 trillion, an increase of 47.56%; gross profit margin during the period was 91.19%, net interest rate 52.62%. First, the performance in 2018 exceeded expectations; in the fourth quarter alone, the volume and price of Maotai liquor rose, but the ton price exceeded the expected long-term total revenue of US $ 77.2 billion and net profit of US $ 35.2 billion, exceeding the previous stage expectations of more than 2.2 billion and 1.2 billion yuan, respectively.The early performance indicators (revenue + 15%) were over-fulfilled and again exceeded expectations.In terms of breakdown, alcohol sales, hotels, net interest and commission income were 735 respectively.6.4 billion.7.4 billion, 34.24 ppm, an increase of 26 each year.47%, 50.60%, 26.37%.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 654.8.7 billion, an increase of 24.99%; series wine income is 80.77 trillion, an increase of 39.88%.Volume and price breakdown, Moutai sales of 32,464 tons (the same increase of 7.48%), the ton price is 201.720,000 yuan (same increase of 16.29%); sales of 29,774 tons of wine (slightly down 0.43%), the price per ton is 27.130,000 yuan (the same increase of 40.49%).Contribution of price to income and profit increments. Generally speaking, the sales volume of Moutai wine exceeded expectations, and the price exceeded expectations; the sales volume of series wines met expectations, and the ton price exceeded expectations.Moutai wine sales plan for 2018 2.8 initial, actual sales 3.25 Initially, more than 4,500 tons, more than 2,000 tons more than the market expected of 3.In the ten years of 2018, Pfeiffer raised the price by 18.32%, but the average ton price of Moutai has only increased by 16.29%, allegedly the price or sales ratio of non-standard products exceeded expectations.In our judgment, the sales rate of non-standard products with a higher ton price increased from about 27% in 2017 to more than 30% in 2018. The subsequent expectations are mainly prices. The increase in the price of non-standard products in the future and the expansion of the sales ratio meanThere is space.The increase in the ton price of the series of wine is 10 pct higher than expected to reach 270,000. In addition to the direct price increase of the product, the unexpected place is the introduction of the zodiac concept and the structural upgrade.The series of wines are expected to usher in better development, the structure of the series of wines will continue to be upgraded, and the ton price is expected to rise again. Revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 222.3 billion, net profit 104.7 billion, single quarter revenue of more than 20 billion, and profits of more than 10 billion are the first time in history.Among them, Maotai Liquor earned 192.22 trillion, the same increase of 37.40%; series wine income 21.4.4 billion, an increase of 22.11%.The volume and price of Moutai liquor have all risen, with an estimated 17% increase in measurement and a 17% increase in price.5%.Although there are expectations ahead of the Spring Festival in 2019, the volume of Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter is still higher than expected.Considering the volume of non-standard products such as boutique Moutai and Zodiac, the market expects a higher price for Moutai liquor in the fourth quarter of the year, but the volume of Pufei and the price increase of non-standard products exceed expectations, which collectively led to the ton price in the fourth quarter.It was also significantly lower than expected. Second, various profit indicators have continued to improve, and it is expected that there will be room for growth in 2019. The overall gross profit margin in 2018 is 91.14%, an increase of 1 per year.34 points; gross profit margin of liquor 91.25%, increase by 1 every year.42 points.Among them, the gross profit margin of Maotai Liquor was 93.74%, an increase of 0 a year.92pct, slightly lower than expected; gross margin of the series 71.05%, an increase of 8 a year.30pct became a new highlight.After the Pfeiffer ex-factory price was raised to 969 yuan, the market expects a higher gross profit margin for Moutai, but it may be because the non-standard ex-factory price increase has not been achieved in one step, and the gross profit margin is slightly lower than expected.The gross profit margin in 2019 is expected to increase further with non-standard further price increases, product structure upgrades, channel adjustments and ton prices. In terms of expenses, the overall selling expenses for 2018 were 25.72 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.7.3 billion, sales expense ratio decreased by 1.85 points to 3.33%.The management expense ratio (including R & D) increased slightly, surpassing 0.20pct to 6.90%.Financial expenses, because most of the company’s funds are collected under the centralized management of the company’s holding subsidiary Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd., operating efficiency and income have improved significantly.The three expense ratios are generally improving, and the increase in net profit margin is higher than the gross profit margin.Due to the increase in the marketing efforts of the series of wines in 2017, some expenses were replenished and the sales expenses were reduced. Looking at the combination of 2017 and 2018, the average annual compound growth in sales expenses was slowly declining.It is expected that the sales expense ratio will still maintain a steady downward trend. The management expense ratio will also help maintain stability and financial costs will continue to improve. The company’s various profit indicators continue to improve, and there is still room for further improvement in 2019 and in the longer term.The growth of 2019 performance is supported by the improvement of the average price, profit elasticity coefficient, gross profit margin and net profit margin. Third, the revenue target is likely to be achieved, and product structure upgrades and channel adjustments will improve performance. The company announced that its operating target for 2019 is to increase its total operating income by 14%.Combined with the group’s sprint target of 100 billion yuan, the company merged “faster than faster”, “jump up and pick peaches” and other tone settings, we judge the probability of achieving the revenue target is very high. According to the sales volume announced in the 2018 annual report, we estimate that the sales volume of Moutai top wine in 2019 may reach 3.45 baseline, an increase of 2,000 tons on the basis of 2018.However, if the technology is not perfect and the production and sales rate of the base wine remains unchanged, please ship in accordance with the top grid in 2019, and the sales volume in 2020 may shift by more than 8%.Due to the need for stable performance, we initially judge that the amount of Maotai liquor in 2019 will remain at the level of 2018 and will not increase. In 2018, due to the heavy volume of Profil, Profil’s share in the product structure is still high.With the limited production capacity and the need to accelerate the layout of various price bands, the proportion of Pufei will definitely fall in the future.In 2019, we look forward to seeing a rapid improvement in product structure.At the same time, there is still room for non-standard products to raise prices.According to the price forecast of 969 yuan by Pfeiffer, the ton price of non-standard products can be increased by at least 20% on the basis of 2017.The 2018 report shows that it is currently only increasing by less than 15%, and there is room for further improvement in 2019. In 2018, the number of Moutai liquor dealers decreased by 437, corresponding to the amount of confiscated plans. In the future, it will be mainly invested in direct sales and direct sales channels.If the total distribution contract is maintained in 2019, about 1.7In the initial period, if there is no increase or decrease, the amount of direct marketing and direct sales channels can theoretically reach 1.55 nominal, almost half.In terms of ex-factory ton prices, the average ton price of direct sales and direct sales is obviously higher than the ton price of distribution contracts, especially for direct e-commerce. In theory, the ex-factory price can be very close to the terminal guide price of 1499.By expanding the proportion of direct sales and direct sales, reducing and recycling channel revenue and profits, it is likely to be the most important support for performance improvement in 2019.We estimate through forecasting that the channel revenue adjustments that can be made in 2019 may be close to 10%. As a result, the revenue target has been reduced, channel adjustments contributed nearly 10%, structural upgrades contributed 3% -4%, and non-standard price increases contributed 1.About 5%, coupled with the increase in the income of series wines, and the continuous growth of periods, fees, commissions and other income, it is not difficult to achieve a total operating income increase of 14%. Fourth, advance receipts increased month-on-month, dealers made positive payments, and reported quarterly advance receipts to strive for a record high advance receipts of 135 at the end of 2018.7.7 billion, an increase of 24 from the end of the third quarter.09 ppm, resumes the trend of seasonal increase.At present, the dealers have started to pay for the goods in June, and some personalized products are paying for this.According to feedback from grassroots research, the first quarter of this year’s shipments will be better than the first quarter of 2018. According to the first quarter, the second quarter will account for about 33% of dealers’ plans and 22% for forecasting.The highest Moutai liquor value is more than 25%, which is expected to increase by billions on the basis of the 2018 annual report, which does not rule out the possibility of setting a new record high. According to the company’s plan and sales during the Spring Festival, we judge that the amount of the Spring Festival may be less than 7,500 tons, but the progress is much better than the 2018 Spring Festival, and the sales ratio of non-standard products such as zodiac wine is relatively high.Although the sales progress of the direct sales and direct sales channels slightly exceeded expectations, in general, the first quarter report has a good performance in terms of sales volume, product structure, and channel adjustment, and the first quarter report status will not be bad. V. Performance Judgment: The logic of performance growth in 2019 has changed slightly, and profits are more optimistic. Regarding the revenue target conversion we did before the announcement of the 2018 annual report, the logic of revenue and profit growth in 2019 has changed slightly.In 2018, the sales volume of Moutai was higher than expected, and the ton price was lower than expected. Therefore, under the circumstance that the performance base was raised, the revenue would continue to grow by more than 14%. The product structure upgrade and channel adjustment must be accelerated. Both measures eventually reflectedFor the average ton price.According to our latest breakdown, the contribution of prices to revenue and profit growth has increased significantly.The sales volume does not increase, and the expense rate and interest rate fall. After that, the profit elasticity will increase and the net interest rate will increase.Therefore, based on our judgment that the 14% revenue growth probability is realized, we also think that the profit in 2019 can be seen more optimistic, and it may exceed market expectations again. VI. Profit forecast In 2018, the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance, the performance will exceed expectations, and the base will be raised.The main goal of achieving revenue goals in 2019 is sustainable product structure upgrade and channel adjustment.At the same time, non-standard products may have further price increases.To sum up, the increase in income mainly 南宁桑拿 comes from the increase in ton price, and the elasticity coefficient of profit to price. 2019 is a crucial year for Maotai Group to sprint 100 billion yuan, and the proportion of listed companies’ contribution to group revenue and profit is very high.Therefore, achieving the stated goal of 14% revenue growth is an important task for listed companies.At present, the company leaders have sufficient confidence in achieving the revenue target. From the perspective of target segmentation, we also believe that it is not difficult to achieve the target.We believe that the market’s judgment is that we believe that the volume of Moutai will be increased in advance. As a result of the heavy tonnage price in 2019, the elasticity of profit will be somewhat greater, and net profit may be more optimistic. Taking into account the company’s business plan and new growth logic, we slightly adjusted our profit forecast and forecasted that the company’s revenue growth rate for 2019-2021 will be 15%, 13%, and 14%, and the net profit growth rate will be 27% and 16%, respectively., 16%, corresponding to an EPS of 35.52, 41.32, 47.94 yuan. We don’t consider Pfeiffer’s plan to continue to raise prices. We predict that the company’s revenue will increase by 13% and profit will increase by 16% in 2020.If Pfeiffer raises its price next year, it will definitely continue to increase its growth rate next year. 7. Future estimates and pricing take into account that foreign countries have seized the pricing power of Moutai, will not easily reduce their holdings, and may continue to buy, and that Moutai will still maintain a certain growth rate in the future, and the amount of alcohol produced will be from the current 3.2In the early stage, it increased to 4 in 5 years.97 samples, and 5 in the long run.6 Initial; ex-factory price will still have room for improvement, and net profit margin will still increase accordingly.Therefore, it is reasonable for Moutai to maintain an estimated hub of about 25 times in the next few years. In 2019, the PE of Moutai was 23 times. Taking into account the rationality and continuity of pricing, we price the company according to the estimated level of 2020, which is 25 times PE. The target price is 1030 yuan, corresponding to 29 times the PE in 2019. Considering that the expected highs of Moutai in 2017 and 2018 were 35 times and 30 times the PE of the appropriate annual performance, given the current blue chip stocks and the domestic and foreign funds swarming to buy, the PE was given 25 times PE in 2020 or 29 in 2019. The PE pricing is relatively reasonable. According to our profit forecast, the market value of the target price of 1030 yuan is 1.3 trillion, the corresponding PE of 2021 is 21.5 times.This target price and corresponding market value may also be a level that Moutai will maintain for quite a long time.Unless the company continues to increase the ex-factory price and maximize supply, the bar will accelerate the growth of profits again, otherwise the company’s estimate level will continue to increase and become the upper limit of the estimates and market value in the next two years. Eight, rational view of prices and risks Although the absolute and target prices are very high, compared to the current 850 yuan, the distance from the target price of 1,030 yuan is only 21%, which may also be the growth space for most of this year or next year.Just like Maotai’s dividend is 182.64 ppm, but the dividend yield is only 1.7%, which is a relatively low level in food and beverage high dividend companies.We should look at Maotai rationally and objectively, whether it is the price of wine or the price of stocks.However, because Maotai has become a benchmark and the focus of the whole society, many things are easily magnified.At the same time, it also breeds certain risks. The greatest uncertainty in the future of Moutai is still the estimated level. We see that the sustainable adjustment in the second half of 2018 is estimated to return.If market sentiment and funding preferences change in the future, Moutai’s estimated hub will fall from 25 times to about 20 times, then the pressure it can withstand is relatively speaking. Risk reminder: The short-term exit of QFII and Kitakami funds may be the company’s biggest negative, and the proceeds of its sales are problems encountered in the sales of Maotai, the rapid growth of revenue and profits, or overseas financial fluctuations, and tight fundsContinue to withdraw.Other fundamentals are difficult to constitute an adverse impact on the company.

Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): The first case of ZSP1273II intervention involved in the development of new influenza drugs has been successfully promoted


Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317): The first case of ZSP1273II intervention involved in the development of new influenza drugs has been successfully promoted

Event: The company recently announced that the clinical trial of ZSP1273, an innovative drug for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and human avian influenza, organized by the holding subsidiary Guangdong Zhongsheng Ruichuang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has been conducted in 25 clinical studies across the country.The center is conducting a phase II clinical trial, and the first case has been enrolled.

Comments: 1.

ZSP1273 Phase II clinical trials have smoothly advanced the research and development progress in China, and Academician Zhong Nanshan served as PI.

ZSP1273 is a small-molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor intended for the treatment of influenza A and human avian influenza. It is the first domestic small-molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor to enter clinical stage II for the treatment of influenza A.

Preclinical tests have confirmed that the drug’s anti-influenza virus activity in vitro is about 1,000 times that of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir, and about 10 times that of the same target drug VX-787.

ZSP1273 has been proven to be safe and stable in pharmacokinetics in Phase I clinical trials. Academician Zhong Nanshan is the head of the project and research work for Phase II / III clinical trials.

The first phase II lawsuit was enrolled and is expected to end in the first half of 2020.

At present, the first patient of the ZSP1273 phase II clinical trial has been enrolled. It is expected that 400-50杭州桑拿0 cases will be completed by the first half of 2020. May 2020?
Data from Phase II clinical trials were obtained in June.

If the phase II clinical trial results are positive, the drug is expected to undergo phase III clinical trials in September 2020 and obtain phase III clinical trial data in the first half of 2021.

If the phase II and III clinical trials progress smoothly, the drug is expected to be declared for marketing in 2021.

2.

Influenza has a high global incidence, and new drugs are generally susceptible to the entire population that is clinically needed, and the global incidence is high.

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses. Influenza A and B viruses are presented annually, and influenza A viruses can cause a global pandemic.

According to data from the World 都市夜网 Health Organization, about 5% -10% of adults and 20% -30% of children worldwide develop the flu each year, and about 3-5 million people develop severe influenza every year, which leads to about 290-650,000 cases.Respiratory disease-related deaths.

Antiviral drugs are an important line of defense, and oseltamivir is a first-line medication.

Influenza vaccination is an important means to prevent influenza, but due to the highly variability of influenza viruses, the role of vaccines is often escaped by influenza viruses, so drug therapy is an important line of defense for influenza viruses.

There are currently three types of anti-influenza virus drugs on the market, namely neuraminidase inhibitors, hemagglutinin inhibitors, and M2 ion channel blockers.

Neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir is the mainstream mainstream anti-influenza virus drug; the alternative method of paramivir is intravenous infusion, which is mainly used for severe or inability to take oral; zanamivir is taken by absorption, the market shareExtremely low.

Hemagglutinin inhibitor Abidol and M2 ion channel blocker amantadine, amantadine have not been awarded the “Influenza Diagnosis and Treatment Program (2019)” due to limited clinical data and elimination of current epidemic strains》 Mainstream recommendation.

Significance or trend, preliminary clinical demand for antiviral drugs.

The M2 ion channel blocker amantadine was marketed in 1966, and its derivative amantadine was marketed in 1987. At present, almost all popular influenza A virus strains have replaced such antiviral drugs.

The neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir was approved by the FDA in 1999 and has been on the market for over 20 years.

Oseltamivir was listed in China in 2001. In recent years, it has been rapidly increasing in volume, and there has also been a certain degree of recognition problems.

In this context, new anti-influenza virus drugs are clinically needed.

3.

The market size of ZSP1273 is expected to reach 22.

There is a huge need for clinical treatment of 92 million anti-influenza virus drugs.

It can be seen that its spread is rapid, the entire population is generally susceptible, and it can cause substitution epidemics every year.

The annual incidence of adults is about 5% -10%, and the incidence of children is about 20% -30%.

In addition, the number of people at high risk of severe cases of hypertension and influenza is huge.

People suffering from chronic underlying diseases such as chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular system diseases, metabolic and endocrine system diseases are more likely to develop severe cases after being infected with influenza virus.

Sentinel surveillance data for inpatient SARI cases in China from 2011 to 2013 showed that 37% of patients with severe influenza had chronic underlying disease, of which cardiovascular disease (21.

5%), chronic two-year pulmonary disease (COPD) (7.

7%) and diabetes (7.

4%) is the most popular.

This type of severely high-risk group is necessary for antiviral treatment after being infected with influenza virus. It can also be administered in advance after exposure.

Based on the high incidence of the entire population and the large base of severely at-risk populations, the clinical use of recombinant anti-influenza virus drugs is in great demand.
At present, anti-influenza virus first-line treatment drugs can be used quickly and can achieve this type in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
10,000 yuan, 22.

470,000 yuan, 29 in the first half of 2019.

300,000 yuan, an annual increase of 116.

5%.

The market size of ZSP1273 is expected to reach 22.

9.2 billion yuan.

In the context of the current degree of toxicity of oseltamivir and the demand for new clinical anti-flu drugs, if the company’s new drug ZSP1273 is successfully marketed, it will gradually share the huge market of anti-flu virus drugs.

At the same time, the spread of knowledge on correcting the flu, the understanding of the difference between the flu and the common cold, and the overall rate of seeking medical treatment and antiviral treatment among people with flu have continued to increase.

With reference to the penetration rate and treatment costs of oseltamivir, Xofluza and other anti-flu drugs, we made a detailed calculation of the market space of the product.

We expect that if ZSP1273 is successfully listed, its market size is expected to reach about 22.

9.2 billion yuan.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The company’s traditional business has grown steadily, clinical trials of new drugs such as the new influenza drug ZSP1273 and NASH new drug ZSP1601 have been steadily progressing, and research and development results have gradually emerged.

The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

01, 28.

07 and 31.

30,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mothers is expected to reach 4 respectively.

73, 5.

21 and 5.

7.2 billion, EPS is 0.

58, 0.

64 and 0.

70 yuan, the current expected corresponding estimate is 17.

37, 15.

77 and 14.

36 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: risk of new drug development; risk of drug price reduction.

Kitakami funds buy buy buy: Aier Ophthalmology was favored by 1.8 billion Masukura last week


Kitakami funds buy buy buy: Aier Ophthalmology was favored by 1.8 billion Masukura last week

66 billion in half a day!

Funds from Kitakami continue to buy and buy. This GEM white horse stock is most favored. Securities Times · e company Mao Jun was affected by the continuous rise in the external market during the Dragon Boat Festival. Today A shares opened higher and higher, but the transaction volume did not significantly increaseThis shows that the wait-and-see atmosphere of market funds still prevails.

  At noon, the Shanghai index rose 0.

98%, SZSE Component Index rose 1.

61%, GEM Index rose 1.

44%.

Disk, 5G, rare earth and other sectors performed actively.

The pork, seed and other 重庆耍耍网 sectors fell the most.

  The two financing funds replaced the capital flow into the capital, and on the last trading day before the termination of the holiday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange financing balance was reported at 5466.

6.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35 from the previous trading day.

4.0 billion; Shenzhen Stock Exchange financing surplus reported 3551.

3.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 from the previous trading day.

400 million; the two cities totaled 9017.

9.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day.

US $ 4.4 billion, a net decrease for the sixth consecutive trading day.

  Obviously, the adjustment of the change of market conditions and the adjustment of some two-financial equity reforms caused the emergence of margin positions, resulting in the proportion of financing positions close to the financing monitoring indicators.

Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it found that the financial supervision indicators of six countries’ chemical industry reached 20.

04%.

In accordance with relevant regulations, when the financial monitoring index of a single stock reaches 25%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange may suspend its financing purchase on the next trading day and announce it to the market. Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks.

  On April 26, the sustainability of the six countries’ chemical industry is still high, and its financing surplus4.

2.2 billion yuan, accounting for 13.

17%.

With the reduction of the first quarterly report and the half-yearly report of the loss, the six-nation chemical industry has hit a limit for three consecutive days.

Before the festival, the financing balance of the six countries’ chemical industry4.

27 trillion US dollars, although the capital budget has not changed much, but the shareholding ratio has actually increased, and the shareholding ratio in the circulating market value is as high as 20.

04%.

Today, the six countries chemical industry attacked along with the broader market, surpassing more than 6%.

  The initial flow direction of Beishang funds is completely opposite to that of the two financing funds. Before the holiday, the capital of Beishang has been net bought for 4 consecutive trading days. Today, the net inflow again exceeded 6.6 billion yuan.

The week before the holiday, the most popular capital of the north is the new MSCI index of Aier Ophthalmology, Masukura 50.14 million shares, Masukura market value up to 18.

With 5.8 billion U.S. dollars, 35 shares including Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Wen’s shares, Tsingtao Brewery were also increased by over 100 million yuan.

  Hengrui Medicine was sold 12.76 million shares by Beijing Capital before the holiday, reducing its market value by more than 7.

5.9 billion US dollars; Hikvision was severely reduced by Beijing Capital’s capital because of related negative influences, and 28.25 million shares were sold by Beijing Capital before the holiday, reducing its market value6.

US $ 9.1 billion; Guizhou Moutai, which was the most favored capital of Beijing, was net-reduced for 7 consecutive weeks. Last week, Beijing Capital again sold more than 160,000 shares of Guizhou Moutai, reducing its market value1.

4.2 billion yuan.

  Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has held three consecutive meetings on rare industry issues. The target audience includes industry experts, rare earth enterprises and competent authorities of production areas. The main issues involved are rare earth environmental protection, rare earth black industry chain, rare intensive and high-end development.Wait.
In the early morning today, the rare earth sector collectively opened higher, with 6 stocks including Yuguang Gold Lead, Yinhe Zongheng, Dehong Co., Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, and Hengdian Dongci, Xiamen Tungsten, and Ningbo Yunsheng leading the gains.

  Hua Chuang Securities said that for an industry, such intensive actions and statements are rare.

The rare earth industry will have further policy promotion. A series of policies such as environmental protection inspection, index verification and strategic acquisition and storage will be released intensively to promote the development of the industry with a reasonable structure, advanced technology, effective protection of resources, and orderly production and operation of the industry.To give full play to the special value of rare earths as a strategic resource.Leading companies such as Minmetals Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources and others are trying to benefit.

  Today, the 5G sector has once again strengthened, with the daily limit of 17 shares such as Monternet, Monternet, Sobeth, and Kexin Technology, such as Huichang, Yueling, and China Stone Technology.

  On the last trading day before the holiday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 5G commercial licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Radio and Television, marking that China officially entered the first year of 5G business.

Because the previous 5G concept was speculated in advance, a large number of profitable disks emerged after the news was released, causing the 5G concept index to fall by 4.

68%.

  CITIC Construction Investment said that the RF front-end chip is the core of communication. Through the upgrade of communication technology, the value of RF chips continues to increase.

The RF chip market is temporarily occupied by overseas giants. The US and Japanese oligarchs together account for 90% of the front-end market.

Demand for domestic front-end replacement of RF front-ends is strong, and policy support is firm.

We are optimistic about domestic leading-edge RF chip design leader Zhuo Shengwei, compound semiconductor manufacturing leader Sanan Optoelectronics, and focus on radio-frequency solution platform makers Xinwei Communication, radio-frequency device maker Weil Co., Ltd., Tiantong Co., Ltd. and McGee Technology.

  Reduced holdings plunged this week, the stock market will usher in a wave of 100 billion lifting of the ban.

In the past two months, the downturn in the A-share market has continued to spread, with the transaction volume expected to be less than 400 billion.

Risk aversion for market funds is heating up, and under this background, individual stocks facing lifting of the ban are under pressure.

  Today, Industrial Fulian 4.

900 million restricted shares were lifted.

Every month at noon drops 8.

81%.

The Ningde era will be lifted to about 9 tomorrow.

800 million restricted shares, accounting for 44 of the company’s total share capital.

64%, the actual number of shares available for circulation is about 9.

600 million shares, accounting for 43 of the company’s total share capital.

72%.

At the monthly closing price of 69 today.

At 67 yuan, the market value of lifting the ban is as high as about 66.9 billion yuan.

  In addition, stocks that announced reductions fell sharply across the board today.

  Boteng shares announced on the evening of the 6th that the company ‘s actual controlling shareholders, namely Nianfeng, Tao Rong, and Zhang Hebing (the three of whom are acting in concert) holding a total of 35% of the company ‘s shares, plan to reduce the total holdings of the company ‘s shares by not more than 71 million shares, that is, not exceeding the total13 of the share capital.

29%.

In the early morning today, Boteng opened lower and went lower, closing at noon every night.

09%.

  Qixin shares announced yesterday that due to capital requirements, the company’s controlling shareholder Zhida Holdings and its affiliate Ye Xiudong planned to reduce its shareholding in the company within 2 months to no more than 2443.

530,000 shares, accounting for 10% of the company’s total share capital.

86%.

The combined shareholders currently hold a total shareholding ratio of 47.

10%.

Qixin shares opened in early trading at a price of more than 9%.

  Du Xuan, the largest shareholder of Golden Securities, plans to reduce the company’s shares by no more than 2%; Chairman Zhao Jian intends to reduce his shares by no more than one.

87% of shares; director, senior vice president Xu Yibo intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.

76% of shares; shareholder Lian Liyang intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 1.

1% stake.

The opening of the Golden Securities Co., Ltd. today is a direct limit.

  Tian He defense controller He Zenglin and his concerted action person Liu Danying plan to reduce the company’s shareholding by no more than 14.4 million shares in the next six months, that is, not more than 6% of the total share capital.Tianhe Defense also opened with a daily limit today. Although it has risen a bit since then, it has still dropped 7.
.

twenty three%.

  The recently announced reduction plans of Tianxia Wisdom, Meijin Energy, Fuman Electronics, and Dunhuang Seeds all fell down on the next trading day of the announcement. Investors of listed companies with recent reduction plans and a large number of lifting of banned stocks should be treated with caution.

Bypassing Gome biology through public fundraising may share science and technology board feast


Bypassing Gome biology through public fundraising may share science and technology board feast
Source: Chongqing Commercial Daily Original title: Bypassing the high-gate biology through public fundraising or sharing the feast of the science and technology board, the highly regarded science and technology board has officially “opened a cabinet” on Monday, and related new stocks of science and technology board are rushingThe strong trend of trying to double has really envied investors.Although the strict science and technology board’s participation in biology has made it impossible for ordinary investors to directly participate in it, instead of the indirect channel of the fund that lays out the science and technology board, ordinary investors still have the opportunity to share the wave of wealth creation of the science and technology board.  The return rate of the public offering funds for the new science and technology board is gratifying. Prior to the official opening of the science and technology board, the first batch of 25 new shares of the science and technology board had announced their placement results and many successful bids in advance. Among them, the proportion of public funds was not small.  According to statistics from the Chongqing Commercial Daily reporter, about 1,600 fund products successfully participated in the issuance of the first batch of 25 new shares of the science and technology board, involving about 110 public fund companies, and the total allocated market value reached 134.500 million yuan.Southern Fund, Penghua Fund, and Huaxia Fund have the highest number of funds allocated, reaching 73, 59 and 58 respectively.In addition, the number of funds allocated to Cathay Fund, Wells Fargo Fund, Harvest Fund, and GF Fund all exceeded 50.  In terms of single funds, the winning ratios of the purchase of new shares of science and technology board of “National Alliance An Xinlong A” and “National Alliance An Small Cap Selection” reached 100%, and all 25 new technology shares of the first wholesale bank were successful.However, the fund with the highest absolute amount of new shares allocated for the science and technology board is “Taikang Hongshi is scheduled to open in 3 months”, and it has newly allocated 24 new shares with an amount of up to 1936.430,000 yuan.Even if the quota ratio accounted for the largest proportion of the fund size was “Cinda Australia Bank New Starting Point A”, which received a new allocation of 22 new shares, the quota was 988.610,000 yuan, accounting for 8 of its total fund size.18%, if calculated based on the doubling of the average increase of the first day of the listing of the new shares of the science and technology board on Monday, these allocated amounts alone can bring nearly 7% of the income to “Cinda Australia Bank New Starting Point A” in a short time.  In addition to “Cinda Australian Bank New Start A”, there are 6 funds allocated with a proportion of more than 7%, which are “Cinda Australian Bank New Start A”, “Chang’an Yusheng A”, and “Oriental Theme Selection”., “Jiutai Jiuwen A”, “Changan Industry Selected A”, “Huafu Huaxin A”.A total of 17 funds have been allocated with a proportion of more than 6%, including “SDIC UBS Ruixiang”, “Orient Internet Plus”, “Zhongrong Smart Choice Bonus A”, “Changxin Liguang A”, and “Hongde Honghua”””, “Penghua Xingtai”, “Oriental Quantitative Growth”, “National Gold Xinrui”, “National Gold Shanghai SSE 50”, “Beijing Credit Suisse’s Outward Growth”, “Shanghai Yinxinda”, “Teda Manulife Dividend Pioneer”, “TEDA’s “Manulife New Idea A”, “Penghua Ruitou”, “Rongtong Reverse Strategy”, “Cathay Value Strategy”, “Cathay Grand Agriculture” and other products.Based on the performance of the 25 science and technology board new stocks doubling the average increase on Monday, the above-mentioned 23 science and technology board new stocks have purchased single-day returns of more than 4% for high-allocation funds.  The advantages of retail investors investing in the science and technology board through public funds are prominent. Some people pointed out that due to the difficulties of ordinary investors in participating in the science and technology board transaction, it is also desirable to indirectly participate in the science and technology board transaction through the public funds with the assets of the science and technology board.Policy.  Wang Guizhong, manager of Harvest Fund Technology Innovation Fund, pointed out that investing in science and technology board through public funds has the following advantages: First, for individual investors, the door of science and technology board may be improved to a certain extent.The science and technology innovation board has a 500,000 yuan asset gate biology and 2 years of stock experience. If you choose a public fund, there is no 500,000 yuan limit, and 1 yuan can also be invested.Second, the requirements of the science and technology board for investors have further increased, and the difficulty of investment has also increased.First, since science and technology enterprises encourage technological innovation, the situation of enterprises is earlier and less uncertain.Many listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board do not have profitability, 武汉夜网论坛 which poses more challenges to the estimates, and professional investors have significant advantages in this regard.In fact, the former does not set a limit for daily price limits in five trading days. After five trading days, the price range has increased from 10% to 20%, which puts forward higher requirements for investors.Third, the advantages of re-establishing public funds.It can be seen from the online new share offering that between the traditional offline placement and the new policy offline placement, the institutional placement ratio is not less than 70%, which significantly increases the success rate of public participation in the new share placement.  Lai Yitang, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Wealth Convergence Fund Management Co., Ltd. said that there are currently three types of public funds that are allocated 杭州桑拿网 with science and technology board assets, which basically cover the needs of ordinary investors to indirectly participate in science and technology board transactions. One is to buy qualified old fundsProducts, investors can choose the best performance products among them by comparing performance, risk, fund manager and other indicator dimensions; the second is that individual investors can participate in the strategic placement of the science and technology board by purchasing strategic placement funds; the third is the selection of science and technology theme categoriesFund products.The types of products include fund products that invest in topics related to technological innovation, invest only in related products of the science and technology board, or related products that track the index of the science and technology board.  Remind that when choosing science and technology board funds, pay attention to the “four clear” fund managers of Castrol Technology Innovation Fund Wang Guizhong: Although investors can choose from a wealth of science and technology board funds, they still have to do when choosing science and technology board funds.To the “four clear”: First, we must clarify the risk-return characteristics of science and technology innovation funds.Although science and technology innovation funds may have higher returns than traditional stock funds, they also have greater risks.Therefore, in the investment process, we must pay attention to the proportion of asset allocation and prevent risks.Second, the scope of fund investment must be clarified.If there is a “Science and Technology Innovation Fund” in the name of the fund, it will not only invest in science and technology innovation board, but also invest in science and technology innovation enterprises, including the main board, small and medium-sized board, GEM, Hong Kong stocks and science and technology board, the scope of investment scope.If the name of the fund contains “Science and Technology Innovation Board”, it can only invest in science and technology innovation stocks.Third, we must clarify the operation mode of the stock positions of science and technology funds.For example, the fund name contains “hybrid fund”, its position ratio is 60% to 90%; the fund name contains “equity fund”, and its position ratio requires more than 80%.Participating in mixed funds, stock fund positions are more stringent.Fourth, define the lock-up period and liquidity. Take the 19 science and technology board theme funds approved by the regulatory authorities as an example, including 6 open-end funds and 13 3-year closed funds, of which 13 3-year closed funds for 3 yearsCannot be redeemed within.Therefore, investors must be clear when choosing some funds, which funds can be redeemed at any time, which funds can not, so you can buy different types of funds according to individual liquidity arrangements.  Lai Yitang, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Wealth Convergence Fund Management Co., Ltd .: From the perspective of the first batch of 25 science and technology board new shares issued a relatively high proportion of funds, its fund size is concentrated in 1.About 5 billion, because the new rules under the Science and Technology Board Network require a minimum position of at least 60 million, and taking into account the fund’s subsequent allocation of certain deep market positions (usually about 10 million) to participate in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, to strengthenThe purpose of the rate of return, so the minimum size of the fund will also be more than 70 million.As the expansion of the fund scale will dilute new income, investors can focus on these small and beautiful fund products when choosing a strategic placement fund for science and technology boards. These products are often established for the innovation of science and technology boards.More targeted and targeted.When selecting and screening investors, they should mainly focus on the investment research team of the product and the hedging strategy for the bottom position. Due to the small size, the fluctuation of the bottom position will also affect the final return penetratingly.

Shenzhen Airport (000089): Net profit after deduction is in line with expectations


Shenzhen Airport (000089): Net profit after deduction is in line with expectations

The non-net profit for the 2019H1 deduction is in line with our expected 2019H1 results announced by Shenzhen Airport: operating income18.

5.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.

6%; net profit attributable to parent company 3.

08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.

7%, corresponding to a relative profit of 0.

15 yuan, deducting non-net profit 3.

7 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

7%, in line with our expectations.

In the second quarter, the company’s revenue increased by 3.

6%, the company’s net profit in the second quarter fell 36.

4%.

The deduction of non-net profit was in line with expectations.

In the first half of the year, the company and Shenzhen Zhenghong Automobile Technology Development Company Co., Ltd. provided a total of approximately 69.2 million yuan in estimated liabilities for the lease contract dispute.

7 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

7%, faster than operating income 5.

The previous 6% growth rate reflects operating leverage.

The proportion of international routes has steadily increased.

In the first half of the year, there were 277 international passengers (including regions) at Shenzhen Airport, which increased by 27% every other time, accounting for 10 of the total passenger volume.

7% (compared to 9 in the same period last year.

0%).

Commercial leasing revenue increased by 13 in the first half of the year.

8%.

In the four years from 2015 to 2018, the airport commercial development company’s revenue barely increased.

In the first half of 2019, thanks to the company’s new round of commercial tenders, the commercial leasing revenue of Shenzhen Airport further increased in the first half of the year.

8%.

The main business profit margin was reduced by 3 units.

For each 3ppt increase in the company’s main business profit margin in the first half of the year, we estimate that this is mainly due to: 1) the revenue side is mainly dragged down by advertising business, the tiered pillar billboards are removed, indoor advertising is affected by macroeconomic effects, customer placement is reduced, media vacancy rates are increased, and the airportAdvertising agencies’ income has temporarily decreased26.

4%; 2) On the cost side, labor costs have increased significantly over time.

Development trend In the second half of the year, the annual growth rate of income accelerated and the profit progress improved.

In the first half of the year, the company’s advertising business was affected by the removal of billboards in May last year, while its commercial leasing business was affected by the rent-free period, and its growth rate was relatively slow several times.

In the second half of the year, the company will fully coordinate the 杭州夜网论坛 peak hour capacity to 54 flights (currently 52 flights), and increase resource conversion at the time of promotion. We expect the company’s internal growth to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Earnings forecasts and current estimates currently correspond to 30/2019/2020.

3 times / 23.

5 times price-earnings ratio.

Considering that the budget debt and advertising business accrued this year exceeded expectations, we lowered our 2019/2020 profit forecast9.

4% / 4.

6% to 7.

07/9.08 thousand yuan.

Maintain Neutral rating and 9.

Target price of 40 yuan, corresponding to 27.

3x 2019 P / E ratio and 21.

2 times the 2020 P / E ratio, 9 compared with the same period last year.

9% downside.

Risk Aviation demand is lower than expected; capital expenditure exceeds expectations.

Gree Electric (000651): Leading industry drives continuous adjustment


Gree Electric (000651): Leading industry drives continuous adjustment

The transfer of major shareholders was completed, the market refocused on the performance of the main business, and the transfer of 15% of the company’s equity to the controlling shareholder of the company was maintained. Zhuhai Mingjun became the company’s largest shareholder.

市场重新聚焦公司主业,2019年双十一以来,公司促销方式从“ T爽+俊越”扩展到“品悦+悦风II”,且根据空调能效新标准制定2020年7月1日 日Effective, level 3 energy-efficient products may face further promotional pressure, industry market clearance efforts will increase, and industry operating pressure may be concentrated in 2020H1. The company’s profit promotion may affect revenue and sales expense ratios. Therefore, we lower the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021.Is 4.

35, 4.

75, 5.

At 46 yuan, the company’s industry chain leader is overall stable and has the ability to cross cycles and maintain the company’s “buy” rating.

The initial right to speak improved, and the company’s controlling shareholder with more consistent interests agreed to transfer the shares. The shareholding ratio of Zhuhai SASAC dropped to 3.

22%, Zhuhai Mingjun is the company’s largest shareholder, and shareholders holding Gezhen Investment (Dong Mingzhu holds 95 shares.

482%) accounted for 6.5% of Zhuhai Mingjun’s subscribed capital contribution
.

3794%.

And according to the company announcement, after the completion of the transaction, the major shareholders will promote the Gree listed company to be incorporated into the recognized entity Gree Investment and the Gree Electric Merger and the number of key employees will not exceed 4% of the equity incentive plan.The further implementation of the plan, the merger of listed companies’ right to speak may continue to improve, or it will help to further strengthen the interests of the listed company and each other.

Promotions drove the share to pick up quickly, and the follow-up or continuation of the profit-sharing price strategy company used it to achieve a rapid rise in market share. Industry online data shows that in December 2019, the company’s domestic sales replacement volume share rose to 43.

6%, an increase of 3 per year.

7 points.

On Double Eleven in 2019, the company launched “T Shuang + Jun Yue” series of air-conditioning promotions, and in December 2019 continued to launch the “Pin Yue + Yue Feng II” series of concessionary promotions, which is conducive to the company’s inventory structure adjustment.Frequency and level 3 energy efficiency products.

And the new air-conditioning energy efficiency standards will be implemented on July 1, 2020. The company may continue some products to promote sales, adjust inventory strategies, the market may face price competition pressure.

The company’s operation is stable, and the epidemic situation may only affect short-term demand. Although the epidemic situation coincides with the low season of air-conditioning consumption, the retail and distribution installations under the home wire will be affected by the delay in consumption and the scale of resumption of work.At the same time, we believe 佛山桑拿网 that the impact on the company’s scale is smaller than the retail side, mainly due to the need to adjust the inventory product structure in the channel after vigorous promotion of multiple series of products in the previous period.

From the perspective of medium- and long-term demand for air conditioners, the growth in the number of holdings is still the core factor driving the growth of the industry. Short-term delayed air-conditioning demand is also expected to recover quickly after the epidemic is over. The overall air-conditioning revenue performance or market pessimistic expectations.

The mixed reforms are advancing steadily, and the company is expected to become the benchmark for state-owned enterprise reform. Based on the forecast of the increase in promotional expenses since November 2019 and the subsequent maintenance 杭州龙凤体验网 of promotional strategies, we lower the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 4.

35, 4.

75, 5.

46 yuan (previous average 5).

06, 5.

97, 7.

07 yuan), the average PE of the reference industry comparable company in 2020 is 11x, the company actively launched industry promotion competition to accelerate industry clearing, industry operating pressure may be prominent in 2020H1, and the company’s industry chain leader is solid, can better pass the industry fluctuation cycle, recognizedGive the company 13 in 2020?
15xPE estimates, corresponding to a target price of 61.

76?
71.

26 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Foreign exchange inflow is lower than expected.

Macroeconomic downturn.

Land impact may exceed expectations.

Zhejiang Longsheng (600352): High-priced and stable real estate business begins to enter the harvest period


Zhejiang Longsheng (600352): High-priced and stable real estate business begins to enter the harvest period

The 重庆耍耍网 company achieved revenue of 166 in the first three quarters of 2019.

2.3 billion (+14 compared to the same period last year).

11%); net profit attributable to mother 38.

8.2 billion (+ 22% YoY).

13%); net profit after deduction is 33.

800,000 yuan (+9 compared with the same period last year).

85%); net cash generated from operating activities42.

4.1 billion (+51 times year-on-year); ROE17.

68 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.

25 points.

Among them, Q3 single-quarter revenue was 69.

7.4 billion (+ 29% YoY).

17%, quarterly +42.

97%); net profit attributable to mother 13.

510,000 yuan (+2 compared with the same period last year).

30% quarterly +6.

43%), net profit after deducting non-return to mother 13.

280,000 yuan (+5 compared with the same period last year).

15%, qoq + 20%), the company’s 武汉夜网论坛 Q3 revenue, the net profit of recurring business attributable to the mother increased by a quarter-on-quarter deviation. We analyze and believe that the main reason is that the company’s real estate business began to confirm the income caused by the Q3 intermediate price remained stable, and the dye quantity and priceQi Qi: The company’s Q3 intermediate contribution income11.

3 billion yuan (+ 19% YoY, -13% MoM), with an average sales price of 4.

60 million / ton (+ 20% yoy, -1% quarterly), sales volume 2.

45 content (yoy + 0, qoq-12%), the company has absolute market right to speak in the fields of m-phenylenediamine, resorcinol, etc., and the intermediate products still continue the high price trend in the first half of the year.

The proportion of intermediates in the company (dye + intermediates + auxiliaries) continued to stabilize at around 30%.

Dye business segment Q3 contributed revenue26.

390,000 yuan (-22% year-on-year, 3% quarter-on-quarter), with an average sales price of 4.

120,000 yuan / ton (13% yoy, qoq-29%), sales volume is 6.

The 41st quarter (up 10% year-on-year and 46% quarter-on-quarter), the third quarter is the traditional peak season for dye demand, but the weak demand performance of the terminal textile and apparel market under the influence of the trade war coupled with the large amount of industry inventory, late demandlight.

The company’s auxiliary products continued to contribute in Q3.

The revenue of 6.7 billion yuan remained stable overall.

The company’s intermediates + dyes + auxiliaries together achieved revenue of 40.

3.5 billion (12% year-on-year, qoq-2%).

The real estate business has begun to harvest, and it is estimated that Q3 will contribute about 2 billion US dollars in revenue: According to the company’s three quarterly data, we estimate that the company’s real estate business will begin to recognize revenue in the third quarter.

The company currently has four major real estate projects: Shanghai Jing’an Datong, Shanghai Jing’an Huangshan Road, Shanghai Huaxing New City, Shangyu High-speed Rail New City. According to the company’s announcement, the Jingan Huangshan Road project (investment 2.7 billion US dollars) construction progress gradually the company has gradually confirmed the advance payment of 250,000 yuanBased on the company’s third quarterly balance sheet Q3, the company’s advance receipts at the end of Q3 have decreased by 2.3 billion yuan from the previous month. We analyze and believe that it should be due to the project’s advance receipts carried forward in Q3.

In addition, the company’s Shanghai Jing’an Datong (investing about 6.3 billion) is expected to start sales in the next year. Huaxing New City, the company’s largest investment (about 25 billion), will complete the demolition project this year.

It can polish the company’s real estate business to gradually realize its income and begin to enter the cash flow cycle. The capital flow of real estate business will also help to increase the company’s future cash dividend rate and increase investment and development of new business.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 41.

58%, a decrease of 4 per year.

29pct where Q3 is 34.10%, the same as the previous quarter, rapid expansion, in addition to the decline in dye prices at a high level, we believe that the main reason is that the real estate business of volume conversion began to recognize revenue, which brought about changes in the company’s business structure.

The financial expenses of the company’s Q3 budget expenses decreased by 0 from the previous month.

36 trillion, mainly due to the reduction in interest rate expenses, the company’s asset-liability ratio fell to 49 at the end of the third quarter.

44%, a decrease of 5 from the previous month.

62 points.

At the same time, due to the change in the fair value of the financial assets of the holder, the company Q3 recognized the net loss of fair value changes1.

610,000 yuan, and zero loss of investment in disposal of financial assets.

410,000 yuan, changes in the value of financial assets also increased the company’s quarterly net profit changes.

Profit forecast: temporarily maintain the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.

32, 55.

02, 62.

The 97 million forecast corresponds to an EPS of 1.

55, 1.

69, 1.

94 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 9 respectively.

3X, 8.

5X, 7.

4x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand continues to weaken; product prices fall sharply

Nearly 200 stocks daily limit, interpretation of the new high institutional hotline during the GEM re-creation stage


Nearly 200 stocks daily limit, interpretation of the new high institutional hotline during the GEM re-creation stage
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  Why a strong rebound?The daily limit of nearly 200 shares, the ChiNext has reached a new high, and the Shanghai Index is also hi!Sources of interpretation of institutional fire line: Securities Times.com original Hu Huaxiong Chen Xiachang continued to rebound on the A-share market on Monday. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index recovered the downward gaps since the 苏州夜网论坛 Spring Festival and regained the 60-day, half-year, and three-year moving averages.The Small and Medium Enterprise Index and the GEM Index performed strongly, and the GEM Index again reached a new high of more than 3 years.  Many experts and agencies believe that the increase in newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia outside Hubei Province has continued to decline, the refinancing policy has been implemented, and the MLF has been gradually increased and the MLF interest rate has been lowered, which is the reason for the market rebound and remains optimistic about the long-term market trend.  A-shares performed strongly on GEM and reached a new high of more than three years. On February 17, the A-share market resumed a strong uptrend, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 66.61 points, an increase of 2.28%, after June 20,佛山桑拿网 2019, the largest single-day increase in 8 months.  In terms of technical graphics, the Shanghai Composite Index recovered the 60-day, half-year, and three-year moving averages within a day.  One point is that through strong growth, the Shanghai Stock Index officially regained the gap caused by the new crown epidemic situation on the first trading day after the Spring Festival.   The SZSE Component Index and the Small and Medium Board Index both broke through the January highs of this year. The SZSE Component Index closed at 11,241.50 points, a new high since March 14, 2018.  The growth index of the GEM index was generally strong, rising sharply 3.72%, continuing to reach a new high of more than 3 years.  The two cities showed a general upward trend. Of the nearly 3,800 A-shares, more than 97% of the stocks increased, the number of declines was less than 100, and the number of daily limit stocks in the two cities was as high as 186.  In terms of sectors, the defense, industrial, communications, electronics, computer, automotive, and non-banking financial sectors saw the highest rises.  The news has been generally warm in recent days.  First of all, in the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, on February 16th, there were 115 new confirmed cases in the country except Hubei, which showed a downward trend for the 13th consecutive day.  In addition, beyond the “rate cut” came again as scheduled.The People ‘s Bank of China ‘s announcement on February 17 showed that in order to hedge the impact of long-term reverse repurchase termination and other factors, to maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity of the banking system, it launched a 200 billion US dollar medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion 7-day reversal.Purchase operation, lower the 1-year MLF interest rate to 3.15%, the Air Force is 3.25%.  Last Friday evening, in order to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms, improve the refinancing market-based restraint mechanism, enhance the capital market’s ability to serve the real economy, and help listed companies fight the epidemic, resume production, the Securities Regulatory Commission officially issued revised refinancing rules.The market generally believes that it is beneficial to the capital of listed companies, especially to GEM companies.  The adjustment of some of the provisions of the above refinancing system mainly includes three aspects: one is to streamline the issuance conditions and broaden the coverage of the GEM refinancing service, including the cancellation of the condition that the asset-liability ratio of the latest issue of GEM public securities exceeds 45% at the end of the latest period;It is to optimize the non-public system arrangement and support listed companies to date strategic investors. The third is to appropriately extend the validity period of the approval documents to facilitate the listed companies to choose the issue window.Extend the validity of the refinancing approval from 6 months to 12 months.  What do experts and institutions think about the market?  Under the impact of the new crown epidemic, the stock market has continued to rebound recently. Gu Yongtao, senior strategic analyst at Cinda Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Times that there are three main factors for the surge.  The first is the overall expected growth rate of the current market. Although the previous period was affected by the epidemic, the overall fundamentals of the A-shares are still healthy, but they are replaced by low levels, and the pessimism in the market is not persistent. The second is the recovery of technology stocks.The impact of the epidemic is small, the industry’s prosperity is strong, and it has become the most attractive place for market capital, and the rebound rate is also higher. Third, the economic-related sectors will be affected by factors such as the epidemic and resumption of work, and the fundamentals will be restored.The time needs to be reduced, but the only thing is that the estimates of the economic-related sectors in 2019 have fallen slightly, and it is estimated that there is little room for continued depression.  Gu Yongtao also pointed out that the outbreak of traffic in the online education and office fields has also attracted funds and pushed the small-cap index to a new high.  Regarding the market outlook, Gu Yongtao believes that the impact of the epidemic on the fundamentals will take about a quarter to repair. The specific degree of repair is related to the epidemic situation and economic resumption data.Gu Yongtao pointed out that the short-to-medium-term market may be volatile.In the long run, Gu Yongtao believes that the policy support is continuously increasing, the fundamentals that support the market and the economy are repaired, and the current market expansion is not expected to be high. It is still optimistic about the long-term trend.  The chairman of Guangxi Haidong Technology Venture Capital Co., Ltd. Hua Minmin told a Securities Times reporter that the direct impact of the new refinancing rules on the secondary market is to increase market activity.For listed companies, the lower performance of refinancing doors will allow companies to use the stock market to finance more rationally, rather than borrowing from banks or issuing bonds, which will help reduce corporate leverage and allow companies to better obtain outreach.Growth, reducing the risks of business operations.  Regarding whether the relaxation of refinancing has a “pumping” effect on the secondary market, Hua Minmin thinks it may not be large, the policy is still in a loose situation, and the market is not short of liquidity. As long as there are good investment opportunities, more funds will be involvedCome in.  Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets continued to fluctuate on Monday, especially the GEM index increased by more than 3%, which was mainly stimulated by good news. The Securities Regulatory Commission announced the refinancing amendment on Friday evening.The ChiNext formed a major positive.  Yang Delong pointed out that because of the large refinancing needs of listed companies on the GEM, the refinancing system has been partially adjusted to broaden the coverage of GEM refinancing services. At the same time, this amendment has increased the investment banking business income of brokerage firms, which has also been beneficial to brokerage stocks.  Yang Delong believes that the impact of the epidemic on the A-share market is a typical type of event shock and does not affect the long-term trend of the A-share market.The A-share is estimated to be in the decline of the global capital market, and the A-share history is ranked at the historical bottom. Therefore, the short-term impact of the epidemic will not change the trend of the A-share market.  Founder Securities’ (strategic rights) strategic view believes that there are three main reasons for the sharp rise in the market on Monday. First, the epidemic prevention and control has made gradual progress, and new confirmed cases outside Hubei have continued to decline. Second, the refinancing policy has been implemented, marking a newA round of refinancing easing cycle started; the third is to add an additional 200 billion MLF and lower the MLF interest rate, and the subsequent LPR interest rate followed the downward adjustment.  Founder Securities believes that the current central and local policies have stepped up their efforts to resume work, and have mostly started by reducing the burden on enterprises, strengthening financial support, increasing fiscal and taxation support, increasing job placement, etc., and using policy combinations to support SMEs.Subsequent needs focus on the progress of resumption of work and the continuous implementation of counter-cyclical policies. Possible changes include targeted reductions in quotas, reduction of LPR interest rates, promotion of the use of special debt, and increase in the deficit rate.  Founder Securities believes that it is possible to maintain a positive allocation and maintain a consistent outlook on growth stocks. The core logic of growth stocks is that the industry’s development trend continues to rise. Currently, it is leading in 5G. Disturbances at the macro scale provide a good layout opportunity, policy, and policy.And fluidity provides resistance to elasticity.Phases are optimistic about securities firms and counter-cyclical overweight related infrastructure and real estate chains.

Agricultural Bank (601288) Semi-annual Report Comment: Asset Quality Continues to Improve and Financial Management Scale Expands Faster


Agricultural Bank (601288) Semi-annual Report Comment: Asset Quality Continues to Improve and Financial Management Scale Expands Faster

Event: On August 30, Agricultural Bank disclosed the 19-year interim report.

Revenue 3231.

8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5.

5%; profit before provision 2192.

9 billion, a year-on-year increase of +6.

0%; net profit attributable to mother is 1214.

5 billion, a year-on-year 佛山桑拿网 increase of +4.

9%; ROE is 14.

57% (annualization); NPL ratio 1.

43%, -16BP earlier, provision coverage ratio of 280.

0%.

  Opinion: Net profit growth has picked up slightly, net interest margin and ROE have seen downward revenue and PPOP growth has improved.

1H19 revenue was 3231.

8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5.

5%.

NBC’s 16-year negative revenue growth (YoY -5.

6%), and after poor liquidation and business adjustments, it went through the 5% step in 17 years and the 10% step in 18 years. In 1H19, the growth of net interest income weakened and it fell back to the 5% step.

1H19 net interest income was 2376.

3 billion, a year-on-year increase of +1.

6% (This is IFRS 9 adjusted. If other non-interest income is added back, YoY is 3.

7%, still weak).

Profit before provision was 2192.

9 billion, a year-on-year increase of +6.

0%; as the provisioning effort was reduced in the first half of the year, 4 was still guaranteed.

9% increase in net profit attributable to mothers.

Net interest margin fell.

1H19 ABC’s net interest margin was 2.

16%, about -19BP, -17BP earlier than 18 years.

Mainly due to the upward average of the deposit interest rate (1H19 deposit interest rate 1).

60%, the earlier 18 years anniversary up 21BP).

  Annualized ROE for two years -2.

15 pct to 14.

57%, also because the growth rate of net interest income fell.

  Asset-side expansion has been rapid, deposit growth has steadily increased, and both loan and investment growth have been higher.

19H1 loan 12.

99 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +13.

3%, investment amount 7.

290 billion, a year-on-year increase of +13.4%.

Among them, the resistance to loan placement speed, 19H1 earlier +8.

8%, investment +5.

8%.

  From a breakthrough point of view, corporate loans7.

06 trillion, +544.3 billion compared with the beginning of the year, and personal loans5.

09 trillion, +423.8 billion from the beginning of the year.

The growth rate of individual loans has remained stable at a relatively high level, and has not been reduced by 15% since 16 years.

1H19 surplus 5.

09 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +17.

1%, basically the same growth rate as 1Q19, and the pace of retail transformation is firm.

  In terms of incremental structure, housing loans accounted for 63%, personal business loans + rural household loans accounted for 19%, and credit cards accounted for 18%.

  The speed of credit card issuance has increased, increasing by 74 billion yuan in 1H19, an increase of more than 46.5 billion yuan.

Deposit growth has steadily increased.

19H1 deposit balance 18.

53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +9.

4%, an increase of 4 over the same period of 18 years.

2 pct.

  Of which demand deposit YoY +7.

4%, time deposits increased by +4 year-on-year.

2%.

18-year time deposits increased by 1.

9%, while the increase in the first half of 19 was 7.
.

1%, partly caused the upward pressure cracks on the deposit interest rate.

  Asset quality continued to improve, and the scale of wealth management expanded rapidly. Asset quality was still in the trend of continuous improvement.

Poor implantation at the end of 19H1.

43%, earlier -16BP, significantly improved.

Attention rate / overdue rate / overdue 90+ ratio is 2.

42%, 1.

49%, 0.

94%, earlier -31BP / -20BP / -10BP, the potential risk is also better mitigated.

Provision coverage was 280.

0%, +27 pct earlier.

The loan-to-loan ratio decreased by 15BP to 5.

10%, the provisioning strength has declined.

The scale of financial management expanded rapidly.

Agricultural Bank of China’s non-guaranteed wealth management scale in 19H1 increased by 129.6 billion to 1.
.

54 trillion, an increase higher than the other five major banks.
Products complying with the new regulations are mainly based on recognized management fees, so the dependence on the scale of wealth management in the future will increase.

The rapid expansion has reflected better customer recognition of its products, and it can also provide a better basis for middle income.
  Investment suggestion: The growth rate of net profit has picked up slightly, asset quality has continued to improve, asset quality has continued to improve, retail transformation has developed significantly, and wealth management has expanded rapidly.

The original forecast for 19-21 is a net profit growth of 4.

6% / 5.

1% / 5.

5%, the current forecast is lowered to 4 due to the promotion of LPR to gradually increase the marketization of loan interest 都市夜网 rates or narrow the interest rate differential.

5% / 4.

twenty four.

0%, the corresponding EPS is 0.

61/0.

63/0.

66 yuan, the target price is 19 times PB, and the target price is 4.

97 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

  Risk reminder: The advancement of interest rate marketization will continue to narrow the interest margin; policy tightening will exacerbate the “asset shortage”.

Shanxi Coking (600740) Annual Report Commentary Report: China Coal Huajin Consolidated Statement Thickens Thickly, Profits Are Low, Expectations To Be Repaired


Shanxi Coking (600740) Annual Report Commentary Report: China Coal Huajin Consolidated Statement Thickens Thickly, Profits Are Low, Expectations To Be Repaired

Event: Shanxi Coking Chemical released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 72 in 2018.

3 billion, an annual increase of 20.

6%, net profit attributable to mother 15.

3 billion, an annual increase of 1567.

4%.

In a single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 20 in Q4 2018.

3 billion, a growth of 19 in ten years.

6%, an increase of 19 from the previous month.

5%; Q4 achieved net profit attributable to mother 2.

500 million, an increase of 514 in ten years.

1%, down 47% from the previous month.

2%.

The company’s dividend rate in 2018 was 19.

78% of reviews: 1.

Both volume and price increased, and the performance of the main coke industry increased.

Quantity: The company has an approved coke production of 360 tons. In 2018, the coke output was 301 inches. For each 21 inch increase, the coke sales volume was 300 millimeters and 17 millimeters.

With the gradual progress of environmental protection, the peak-and-peak production limit policies for heating and non-heating seasons have been released intensively since 2017. According to the company’s announcement, the company had 6 months of peak-and-peak production limit requirements in 2018.—On March 31, the coking time was extended to 30 hours, from September to mid-November to 48 hours, and from mid-November to December to 30 hours, the total output was predicted to affect 76.

For 5 samples, the expected limit for peak-shift production was 43% (76.

5 (/ 360/2) = 43%), and the company ‘s actual production limit is expected to be 33% (59/180).

Overall, due to the civilian heating task in Q4, the restriction on production was slightly relaxed, and the actual implementation of the restriction on production was the largest one quarter.

Price: Due to the impact of coke environmental protection to reduce production capacity, the price of coke hubs increased significantly in 2018. The average price of coke sales in 2018 was 1,777 yuan / ton, which was an increase of 268 from the average price of 1,510 yuan / ton (excluding tax) in the same period last year Yuan / ton.

2.

Acquisition of China Coal Huajin, increasing investment income 11 billion January 25, 2018, the company issued shares to Shanjiao Group and paid cash to purchase 49% of the distribution of China Coal Huajin held by the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved in 2018,The consolidation was completed in March.

China Coal Huajin has 3 coal mines with a total length of 1,020 approved capacity and a length of 873 equity. The main coal types can be thinned.

In 2018, China Coal Huajin achieved operating income of 98.

2.4 billion, operating cost 29.

9.1 billion, net profit attributable to mother 29.

1.1 billion, 49% equity corresponds to 14.

300 million, due to the consolidation in March, investment income from January to February is not attributable to Shanxi Coking. In 2018, Shanxi Coking held a 49% stake in China Coal Huajin, which corresponds to income from March to December.

1000000000.

3.

The decrease in Q4 profit in 2018 was mainly due to the increase in expense ratio and the profit margin of China Coal Huajin Q4.

Net profit attributable to mothers in Q4 20182.

500 million, a decrease of 2 from the previous month.

200 million, the first is that (1) the expense ratio increased during Q4: the expense ratio during Q4 2018 was 9.

2%, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.

Six totals,苏州桑拿网 mainly for overhead costs (+0.

9 units) and financial expense ratio (+0.(8 per share); (2) Investment income decreased by 1.

4 billion.

4.

Estimated to be low, to be repaired.

As of April 15, 2019, the company’s total market value was 159.

500 million, corresponding to 10 times the PE in 2018 performance. Since the 18 years of China Coal Huajin only included 10 months of performance, the company’s profit for 18 years was 18 in 12 months.

500 million, corresponding to PE of 8.

6 times.

Looking at 2019, coking coal has a small net increase in production capacity, social financial data exceeded expectations, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded sharply, and macro data has moved closer to micro.

In terms of coke, due to the high base in early 2019 and the constant change in coke prices, it is expected that the price of coke prices will increase slightly in 2019.

Investment suggestion: Due to the slower-than-expected rate of coke de-capacity, we adjusted downward the company’s profit forecast.

0 billion, 19.

600 million down to 18.

6 billion, 16.

500 million; net profit is expected to be 16 in 2021.

8 ppm, as the company’s current estimate is still low, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the actual macroeconomic growth, coal prices have fallen sharply, a large amount of additional production capacity has been released, and coke production capacity has fallen short of expectations